Why AU Mission's future in Somalia is uncertain

MOGADISHU, Somalia - The future of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is in limbo due to concerns over the expected transition, Ethiopia's tensions, and underfunding from donors, who have been supporting the exercise for the last two decades.

Funding gaps have emerged, with troops serving in the mission going many months without payments. Separately, the threats by Ethiopia which is accused of annexation plans have raised concerns among the Somalia allies.

With limited resources, there is also a question of transition to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which is expected to take over from January 2025.

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the president of Somalia, met leaders of troops contributing countries to discuss the future of the mission. This saw him visit Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and Djibouti with the exception of Ethiopia, which Somalia terms as hostile.

During the shuttle diplomacy, President Mohamud emphasized Somalia's stance on controlling the mission's next phase, stressing the country's desire for leadership over military contributions. Somalia aims to exclude Ethiopian troops from the mission, seeking their eventual withdrawal from Somali territory.

Currently, the international community remains divided on funding the new mission with the US and allies backing the new structure while the United Nations Security Council raising concerns. The US wants the new mission to kick off from 2026 but Somalia expects the mission to start in January 2025.

In response, U.N. officials have proposed a mandate extension for ATMIS, allowing additional time to assess the mission's structure. The new mission, Somalia insists, should be supervised by Egypt, further raising complications for the countries that started the peacekeeping mission in Somalia.

The outcome of these discussions will likely shape Somalia's long-term stability and the evolving role of foreign forces within its borders as The African Union seeks a resolution. Somalia insists Ethiopia is unfriendly and consequently, should withdraw all her troops from the country.

Ethiopia signed an agreement with Somaliland over access to the Red Sea, leading to objections from Somalia. To counter the threats, Somalia has signed defense pacts with Egypt and Turkey aimed at protecting her territorial integrity and sovereignty.

GAROWE ONLINE