OP-ED: A Ship Adrift Docks in Kismayo

OP-ED| For those trying to decipher President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's (HSM) sudden trip to Kismayo, confusion is the natural response. It only seems illogical if one assumes his presidency is guided by a consistent, long-term strategy. A closer look reveals a different story: this visit is not a pivot, but a symptom of a leadership style that has left the President isolated and his authority weakened.

Upon his return to office, HSM abandoned the patient work of statecraft for a doctrine of deliberate unpredictability and centralized control. He is now reaping the consequences: eroded credibility, alienated allies, and a profound isolation that threatens not just his administration, but the fragile stability of the nation.

The False Allure of Unpredictability

HSM operates on a theory that keeping everyone, friends and foes and allies alike, perpetually off-balance is the key to power. This approach prizes momentary tactical advantage over coherent strategy.

However, while chaos can secure a short-term win, it systematically corrodes the foundations of sustainable governance. When no one can predict your next move, no one can build reliable alliances with you. By choosing erratic maneuverability over sound strategy, the President has not strengthened his hand; he has introduced a critical liability into the heart of government.

The Kismayo visit is the ultimate proof of this failure. This is not statesmanship; it is tactical improvisation born of necessity. Having alienated a broad political spectrum through broken commitments and impulsive decisions, the President finds his options narrowing. This trip is not a genuine overture for a durable settlement; it is the act of a leader forced to abruptly reverse his own policy to secure a temporary lifeline.

A Currency in Crisis: The Erosion of Trust

A leader's most vital asset is trust. President HSM has squandered this long-term capital on short-term tactical gains. By demonstrating that his word is secondary to the whim of the moment, he has shattered his own credibility.

The result is a critical negotiation deficit. How can the Jubbaland administration, or any other regional leader, trust a partner whose positions are so transient? Today’s adversary is tomorrow’s negotiating partner not because of a shift in the national interest, but because of a shift in the President’s calculus. This capriciousness reveals that the conflict with Jubbaland was never truly institutional; it was personal. And now, this reconciliation appears equally personal, a photo opportunity offering a fleeting respite from his growing isolation.

Governing by Whim

Enduring power is built through strong, impersonal institutions. President HSM has rejected this principle, treating power not as a tool for governance but as a personal commodity. Key positions have been awarded not on merit, but as rewards for personal loyalty.

He is neither a principled statesman building capable institutions nor a strategic autocrat forging a durable political machine. His appointments lack any coherent philosophy, serving neither a grand vision nor a clear plan for effective governance. This approach is akin to a millionaire squandering his wealth on sycophants; once the patronage runs dry, the support evaporates, leaving a hollow and transient power base.

Compounding this strategic failure is an alarming personal dimension. The President's unpredictability often seems less a calculated tactic and more a product of personal mood swings. Somali statecraft has become vulnerable to the impulses of one man.

In this climate of perpetual insecurity, the primary survival skill for his inner circle is to feed the President's self-image. Trapped by this flattery, he is shielded from harsh realities. The consequence is a political landscape where friends and foes are indistinguishable, and decisions are made not for the nation's benefit, but to survive the daily whims of the leader.

A Trap of His Own Making

President HSM’s quest for total control through unpredictability and personal whim has proven self-defeating. The conditional loyalty he commands, built on fear and fleeting patronage, is already fracturing. Having built no durable institutions and fostered no genuine alliances, he finds himself increasingly isolated.

His boat, adrift and directionless, has now docked in Kismayo. But we must ask: for how long, and to what end? Without a consistent strategy built on credible commitments, this visit is merely another unpredictable swing of the pendulum. It may generate a day's headlines, but it will not rebuild the trust he has systematically broken. It is a tactic for political survival, not a blueprint for the stable governance Somalia so desperately needs. The nation remains trapped in the uncertainty of his whims.

By: Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame – A Prominent Somali Politician and Reform Advocate