OP-ED: Somalia’s NCC: A Political Tool or a Governance Necessity?

Examining the Consequences for Peace-building and Democratic Stability: Since its inception in 2012, Somalia's National Consultative Council (NCC) has operated as an informal decision-making body, bringing together the president of the federal government and leaders of member states. While its existence has been justified as a mechanism to ensure timely elections and political coordination, its legitimacy remains questionable, as it bypasses both the parliamentary system and executive structures.  Over the years, the NCC has been at the centre of contentious political infighting, with competing interests shaping electoral models and timelines.

The National Consultative Council (NCC) faces criticism for its lack of representation. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud appointed three loyal members: the prime minister, his deputy, and the Mogadishu Mayor. Three state presidents without mandates due to election delays also align with him, along with one member state, which has been recognised recently and is seen as the government’s political opportunity. These concerns cast doubt on the NCC's democratic and representative nature.

The Shift in NCC’s Composition and Its Implications

A new wave of uncertainty has emerged as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud consolidates power by aligning with three federal member state presidents, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Southwest, alongside the Speaker of Parliament and the Prime Minister.  This move effectively sidelines Puntland and Jubaland, raising serious concerns about the NCC's neutrality and its ability to represent Somalia's broader political spectrum.  The absence of key stakeholders and the exclusion of opposition voices highlight a fundamental flaw: Can a single-party-dominated NCC genuinely serve as an impartial governance body?

The conditions under which the three federal member state presidents joined the president's party further complicate the situation.  Their prolonged election delays, stretching nearly three years, allowed them to secure their positions as sole candidates in their respective states, deepening governance imbalances.  The lack of electoral legitimacy undermines democratic principles and fair political competition, further eroding public trust.  This consolidation of power within a single political faction undermines the principles of democratic representation and electoral fairness.

Adding to the complexity, the president invited the SSC, recently recognised as the sixth federal member state, to the NCC.  However, both Puntland and Somaliland rejected SSC's recognition, claiming it as part of their territories.  This move has been interpreted as an attempt to balance clan representation, yet political tensions persist as Jubaland and Puntland refuse to attend NCC discussions.

However, the NCC's current seating chart further highlights imbalances in representation.  Among the four major clans, one is represented by only a single member.  Ideally, the Speaker of Parliament and the Second Deputy Prime Minister should have been included to restore balance. Yet, Laftagareen has notably failed to advocate for his constituency to join the discussion.

Urgent Need for Elections in Overstayed Federal Member States

Beyond concerns about the NCC's composition, Somalia's democratic framework is significantly weakened by prolonged election delays in key federal member states.  Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Southwest have remained under unelected leadership for years, sidelining democratic processes and concentrating power within a single faction.  Immediate elections in these states are critical to restoring legitimacy and reinforcing Somalia's constitutional principles.

Without timely elections, these regions risk becoming political strongholds for entrenched incumbents rather than functional governance entities.  This failure disrupts Somalia's federal system, deepens political fragmentation, and hinders democratic reforms at a national level.  Governance cannot thrive when term limits are ignored, elections are delayed, and representation is manipulated for political gain.

Consequences for Peace-building and Democratic Stability

The NCC’s evolving structure, coupled with election delays in key federal member states, poses several risks to Somalia's fragile peace-building efforts:

Erosion of Electoral Integrity: Historically, Somalia has held elections on time, ensuring peaceful transfers of power.  However, the current political manoeuvring threatens this precedent, as opposition voices are systematically excluded from decision-making processes.  The lack of inclusivity and political consensus could lead to heightened tensions and potential electoral disputes, further destabilising the country.

Deepening Political Fragmentation: A one-sided NCC that excludes Puntland and Jubaland from deliberations exacerbates existing divisions within Somalia's federal system.  Without a broad-based consensus, governance decisions risk being perceived as unilateral, further alienating dissenting regions and political actors, exacerbating federal tensions, and diminishing trust in national governance structures.

Undermining Public Trust in Governance: The NCC's legitimacy has always been contested, but its latest transformation into a party-aligned entity raises serious concerns about its credibility.  If the public perceives governance structures as tools for political consolidation rather than democratic representation, trust in state institutions will erode, potentially fuelling instability.

Potential for Electoral Disruptions: With key opposition figures sidelined, the upcoming elections could face significant challenges.  Political actors who feel disenfranchised may resort to protests or other forms of resistance, disrupting the electoral process and delaying Somalia's democratic progress.  As the culture of consensus and compromise disappears, this will set a precedent for a lack of respect for the laws of the land.

Path Forward: Restoring Balance and Inclusivity

Somalia's leadership must commit to transparent governance and electoral integrity to mitigate these risks, prioritising inclusive dialogue and institutional reforms that reinforce democratic principles.  Some key recommendations include:

Þ    Re-establish NCC’s Neutrality

The NCC should function as a consultative body representing ALL federal member states rather than an extension of the ruling party. Balanced participation is crucial for legitimacy.  The NCC should function as a consultative body representing all federal member states rather than serving as an extension of the ruling party.  Ensuring balanced participation will enhance legitimacy and foster trust.

Þ    Conduct Immediate Elections in Overstayed Member States

The federal government must prioritise elections in Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Southwest to restore democratic legitimacy and prevent governance stagnation.

Clear and enforceable electoral timelines must be established to prevent prolonged delays that benefit incumbents.  Independent oversight mechanisms should be in place to ensure fair competition.

Þ    Guarantee Electoral Transparency

Strict electoral timelines must be upheld to prevent further delays, ensuring fair competition and credible governance.

Þ     Strengthen Parliamentary Oversight

Bypassing parliamentary structures weakens Somalia's democratic foundation.  Restoring parliamentary authority ensures accountability in electoral decisions.

Þ    Guarantee Electoral Transparency

Strict electoral timelines must be upheld to prevent further delays, ensuring fair competition and credible governance.

Þ    Encourage Political Reconciliation

Excluding Puntland and Jubaland threatens national unity.  Diplomatic engagement is imperative to bridge divisions and restore stability.

Conclusion

Somalia's National Consultative Council (NCC), initially conceived as a pragmatic mechanism for electoral coordination, now stands at a critical crossroads, facing the alarming risk of transforming into a vehicle for political consolidation.  What was once intended to facilitate governance and cooperation now threatens to entrench exclusionary decision-making, sidelining key stakeholders, and jeopardising Somalia's fragile democratic progress.

The alignment of member state presidents, many of whom lack electoral mandates due to election delays, raises concern. The president's mission to establish a political party with leaders from federal member states without mandates and the appointed prime minister and deputy draws parallels to the Somali Revolutionary Socialist Party's authoritarian rule that led to civil war. If the NCC continues this trajectory, it risks repeating past governance failures, reinforcing centralized control, and hindering democratic participation.

To prevent such a regression, Somalia must take decisive action.  The NCC must either be dissolved entirely, restoring authority to the executive and parliament, or undergo a fundamental transformation into a forum that genuinely represents the diversity of Somali political actors, including opposition groups, civil society organisations, and marginalised regions.  Somalia can only safeguard transparency, accountability, and electoral integrity through inclusive governance structures, ensuring that political power is distributed equitably rather than concentrated within a narrow ruling circle.

Without meaningful reform, Somalia risks repeating historical mistakes that could undermine democratic aspirations and threaten long-term stability.  The country must prioritise institutional safeguards that prevent monopolisation, foster inclusive dialogue, and uphold democratic principles, ensuring that governance truly serves all Somalis rather than a select few.

By: Hon Hassan Haji Ibrahim

Former MP and Chairman of DPC Party.