EDITORIAL: Somalia must right its policy on foreign defence cooperation

EDITORIAL - Somalia has this week become the centre of a controversy after it received arms from Egypt, and angered Ethiopia which still sees Cairo as its enemy. But that is not an entirely accurate description of how it came to that.

The story may have begun in December 2023 when Somalia and Ethiopia signed a defence cooperation MoU that officials said was to promote peace and security in the Horn of Africa. Both sides had signed one such deal in 2014 and they said the 2023 one was to extend the cooperation.

From the outset, it looked like the two countries that once went to war against each other, have established continuity in cooperation. But just three weeks later on January 2, Ethiopia signed an MoU with Somaliland, the north-western territory of Somalia, for access to the sea. It ruined everything as Somalia protested an attempt to dismember its territory.

Since that time, Somalia’s protestations have been met with a refusal by Addis Ababa to withdraw the MoU, which reportedly promised recognition of Somaliland as an independent state.

This week, when Egypt delivered arms to Somalia, it was fulfilment of Cairo’s pledge to deploy some 10,000 troops, some of who will be a part of the African Union Security Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) which is due to replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia. But Egypt is also an enemy of Ethiopia over the Nile, after a failed resolution on how to fill the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Ethiopia. The dam is seen in Cairo as a security threat but is valued in Addis Ababa as a source of electricity the country needs. Addis Ababa went on to fill it unilaterally.

So far, experts have said there is no likelihood of Ethiopia and Egypt clashing over the Nile. There is also less likelihood of Ethiopia and Somalia going to war now, even though they clashed in the past. The events in Mogadishu this week, though, may distract the Horn of Africa from cooperating against a common enemy in al-Shabaab. Ethiopia, without naming Egypt, said Somalia was threatening regional security by entertaining outside entities.

Even though the MoU with Somaliland is the sticking point that must be resolved, Somalia should sort out its mess of how it runs these cooperation arrangements. Some have argued the desire to reach out to Egypt was because it felt threatened by the January MoU. In truth, Egypt had come to the aid of Somalia before in 1964 during the First Ogaden War against the Ethiopian Empire. That war ended in a stalemate.

First forward to 2024 and Somalia finds itself in a quagmire. It has defence cooperation arrangements with more countries beyond just Egypt and Ethiopia. So why does it feel threatened despite those defence arrangements? This month, it signed a defence cooperation arrangement with Egypt, after months of insisting Egypt was merely a diplomatic partner to leverage on.

One reason could be in the way it signed MoUs without elevating them to full agreements that could obligate either party to respect the sovereignty of the other. MoUs are usually statements of intent that are not binding to parties. They are merely signals that parties intend to strengthen cooperation in a certain area in future, without committing timelines or obligations. If Somalia simply reaches such MoUs with countries and moves, there won’t be any requirement on parties they sign with to do anything.

The second reason may be the intent of those countries when they enter MoUs. Some commentators have argued they entered them with Somalia just as a receipt to show of cooperation in Somalia, and to ward off rivals. The Horn of Africa being the proxy of geopolitical rivalries means that more powers are intent on leaving footprints as much as they can.

The third reason is that Somalia’s weak institutions make it desperate to look out for anyone appearing to help. That means there is little time to establish whether such MoUs help the country or not.

The problem, however, is that Somalia has spent more time in boardrooms discussing these MoUs while al-Shabaab, the enemy the government wanted to eliminate continues to thrive. If they have to enter any defence cooperation arrangements, Somalia must ensure such arrangements are to defeat the militants and secure the country’s territorial integrity. Anything else is to invite trouble it cannot afford to host.

GAROWE ONLINE