Al-Shabaab’s shift in tactics, raises concerns over regional security

MOGADISHU, Somalia -  The recent change of tactics by Al-Shabaab could trigger more security challenges in the Horn of Africa, experts say, with the group now targeting military bases and installations, a radical shift from small-scale sporadic attacks mainly using Improvised Explosive Devices [IEDs].

Within a span of two weeks, the militants targeted Uganda People's Defense Forces [UPDF] Forward Operating Base [FOB] in Bulo Marer killing 54 soldiers, and would later try to run over the Ethiopian military base in Dolow town in the porous Gedo region, but were effectively repelled.

According to professor Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad, the Chairman of the Institute for Horn of Africa Strategic Studies, the Al-Shabaab, the change of tactics has "proven to be successful for the group, causing alarm over its increased effectiveness and the potential implications for regional security".

For the last seven months, Al-Shabaab has been under immense pressure in Somalia following the operations against them by the Somali National Army [SNA] with the help of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia [ATMIS], the US Africa Command, and the local militia.

In return, the group has invested in retaliatory attacks, often involving significantly larger numbers of fighters, who provide a significant tactical advantage. Overwhelming military bases with a force several times larger than the defending personnel makes it challenging for the military to mount an effective defense, Abdisamad says.

The attack on bases was rampant in previous years but the increased military operations significantly downsized the group's operations, only for them to resume the dangerous tactic which could prove further difficult to contain. The group still has a huge presence in central and southern Somalia.

"The sheer volume of attackers quickly overwhelms the bases’ defenses, causing chaos and confusion among the soldiers," Abdisamad adds. "The large-scale attacks also have a significant psychological impact on the defending military personnel, leading to panic, demoralization, and potential breakdown in command and control structures."

Targeting military bases is strategic in the sense that the group relies on the depletion of resources besides creating "panic" when they attack the bases in numbers. Accounts from eyewitnesses estimate the number of attackers on the UPDF base to be 800, the highest in as many years.

Overwhelmed bases quickly exhaust ammunition, medical supplies, and other essential resources, making it difficult for the defenders to sustain their defense over an extended period. Besides Bulo Marer, the group has had successes in El-Adde and Kulbiyow FOBs where they managed to overrun Kenya Defence Forces [KDF] bases in 2016 and 2017 respectively.

"These tactics have resulted in the rapid capture of major military bases, allowing Al-Shabaab to loot substantial quantities of weapons and military vehicles, thereby replenishing their stockpiles and bolstering their confidence," Abdisamad adds.

Major (Rtd) Abdirisak Malik of the KDF concurs with Abdisamad, noting that the attack on military bases is a "destructive strategy" which could disorient systematic and coordinated operations against the group. According to him, the team players should "religiously protect the bases if at all they want to win the war".

The ability of Al-Shabaab to assemble and deploy large numbers of fighters suggests an improvement in their intelligence-gathering capabilities. The Amniyat wing has for a long time succeeded in gathering intelligence against foreign and local troops, often finding them in surprise.

Intelligence reports by KDF sometimes back blamed "rogue" SNA soldiers and members of the National Intelligence Security Agency [NISA] for "compromising" intelligence by sharing tips with Al-Shabaab. At that time, however, the government of Somalia denied the allegations, terming them "innuendos and conspiracy theories".

However, Abdisamad notes, the group may have developed better infiltration networks, allowing them to gather information about military bases and their vulnerabilities. This increased intelligence helps Al-Shabaab select targets and plan attacks with a higher chance of success, he says.

If the group continues to overwhelm military bases successfully, it could embolden them to expand their operations and launch larger-scale attacks in neighboring countries or against other high-value targets, he adds. "This escalation would worsen the threat posed by Al-Shabaab and potentially destabilize the wider region."

The militants have lost significant territories in rural central and southern Somalia but have managed to gather confidence to attack bases in different parts of the country, besides targeting security forces and members of the public through sporadic attacks. Al-Shabaab is the largest Al-Qaida ally in Africa.

GAROWE ONLINE