Are Ethiopian non-AMISOM troops plotting offensive against Al-Shabaab in Somalia?

MOGADISHU, Somalia - For the last two months, a contingent of Ethiopian non-AMISOM troops hav been crisscrossing into parts of Somalia, a move which predictably raised eyebrows among critics, due to escalation of tension in Gedo region.

Despite antagonism from among political elites in Jubaland, the troops went on to establish a base in Doolow district within Gedo, a region that has been experiencing unending squabbles between FGS and Jubaland administration.

Curiously, the mass entry of the troops early this month coincided with that of Somali Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire's trip to Addis Ababa. It's not clear if Mogadishu made a formal request for deployment of the troops, and if so, the main purpose for their presence.

Both Gedo and Southwest regions fall under the jurisdiction of the African Union Mission in Somalia. In the setup, Kenya Defense Forces man Sector II and VI while the Ethiopian AMISOM troops guard Sector III and VI.

But it's the entry of non-AMISOM Ethiopian troops that could trigger political emotions in Somalia since the mandate of the fresh troops is not well defined. Gedo, which is in Jubaland and Southwest are believed to be strongholds of Al-Shabaab militants.

A fortnight ago, the militants tried to ambush a convoy of ENDF between Doolow and Baidoa, leading to fierce clashes between the two, leaving over 17 militants dead. The troops are part of those who had crossed over the border and established a base in Doolow, reports indicate.

Col. Habtom Zenebe of FDRE Defense Force, Eastern Air Force Deputy Commander for Operation, said the militants were killed in Kurteele and Yurkud villages, which are important links between Doolow and Baidoa.

The militants, he noted, had targeted the ENDF convoy along the route but the military "acted swiftly" by "opening fire" which killed a record 17 of them. The troops were headed to Baidoa, the administrative capital of Southwest, he added.

Although a good number crossed to Baidoa to join those enlisted in AMISOM, some remained in Doolow. ENDF presence in Somalia has for years triggered suspicions, with opposition chiefs linking them to "illegal" crackdown against member states.

For instance, in December 2018, the non-AMISOM contingent was accused of bungling Southwest regional polls, in which former Al-Shabaab deputy leader Mukhtaar Robow was arrested, leading to unprecedented death of 11 people. In Gedo recently, officials accused them of conspiring with FGS to topple Ahmed Madobe.

But the increased number of non-AMISOM troops could be a scheme to plot a historical onslaught against Al-Shabaab within Middle Juba, which has harbored the militants for over a decade. The team could be set to boost those in AMISOM during the battle.

In 2011, a similar move was witnessed in Mogadishu when the Ethiopian troops helped to conquer the capital, flushing out Al-Shabaab after 4 years of chaos and mayhem. According to reports, the soldiers were accused of "committing crimes" contrary to UN humanitarian clauses.

To signify perhaps an impending battle between ENDF, AMISOM commander Lt. General Tigabu Yilma, who is an Ethiopian, visited the troops are Baidoa early this week and donated operational vehicles.

While addressing AU forces in Baidoa, Yilma, whose Ethiopia National Defense Forces [ENDF] man most parts of Southwest and Juba, said the operational vehicles and military hardware will increase the mobility of his troops by clearing main supply routes in Southwest.

This, he added, would also substantially help in securing population centers besides helping to degrade the Al-Shabaab militants. The Al-Qaida linked group controls large swathes of rural southern and central Somalia, UN said in a report.

“I am here in Baidoa to unveil our new equipment. We have to ensure that our forces are properly trained in using this military hardware and are able to take care of it," said the ENDF general, who took over AMISOM responsibilities in 2018.

"With proper training and use of this equipment, I have no doubt that we will succeed in delivering the AMISOM mandate,” he added, noting the danger Al-Shabaab poises to the people of Somalia and neighboring nations.

The troops could be guided by the AMISOM transitional plan, which has tentatively scheduled 2021 for exit from Somalia. Already, of 22,000 mission troops, 1,000 left in March as part of piloting for an impending exit.

Under the transition plan, AMISOM forces are working closely with the Somali Security Forces in gradually handing over security responsibilities of the country ahead of AMISOM’s anticipated exit from Somalia.

“As you know, we are implementing the Somalia Transition Plan, which is based on our Concept of Operations. This requires us to secure population centers and main supply routes. To do that, we need highly mobile equipment to enable us to conduct effective offensive operations against the enemy,” he said.

Critics have for long questioned the delay by AMISOM and US military to launch an offensive against the militants especially in their hideouts within Jilib town in Middle Juba. Instead, the military has chosen to over-rely on US Africa Command airstrikes for ground combats.

Should the offensive against Al-Shabaab be launched, the Al-Qaida linked group might lose it's traditional strongholds, thus effectively ending their decade reign of terror in Somalia.

The Al-Qaeda-linked group has close to 7,000 active fighters but some have since defected due to financial constraints, rampant offensive from the military, and internal squabbles.

GAROWE ONLINE