Ethiopia Reclaims Regional Influence with the Inauguration of GERD, Though Nile Disputes Persist

Guba, Ethiopia – Ethiopia has officially inaugurated the largest dam in Africa, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), during a grand ceremony held in the city of Guba on 9 September 2025. The event, which coincided with Ethiopia’s New Year celebrations, was also a showcase of regional power projection, attended by several neighboring heads of state.

Kenyan President William Ruto, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Djiboutian President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, and the President of South Sudan were among the dignitaries present. Their attendance—particularly that of Kenya, which has long expressed interest in importing Ethiopian electricity—signaled that GERD is seen as a project extending beyond Ethiopia’s national interest, one that could serve as a cornerstone for regional energy integration in East Africa.

South Sudan’s stance was also noteworthy. Juba presented the dam as a symbol of African self-reliance and expressed a desire to purchase electricity to help meet its domestic energy needs.

Egypt, however, watched from the sidelines. Cairo reiterated that GERD poses a major threat to its water security unless a binding tripartite agreement is reached between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt to govern the dam’s filling and operation. This underlined that, despite the celebrations, the political dispute over the Nile remains unresolved.

The central question remains: is Ethiopia reclaiming its former role as a regional leader? The inauguration strengthens Addis Ababa’s hand by granting it new leverage over energy—power it can price, restrict, or extend to its neighbors. It also bolsters Ethiopia’s international image as a nation capable of building large-scale infrastructure, even as it continues to grapple with ethnic conflicts and domestic political challenges.

Analysts argue that the unresolved obstacles for Nile basin countries are twofold: first, the need for a comprehensive tripartite agreement to ease Egyptian pressure on the international stage; and second, credible dam operations that demonstrate reliable and drought-sensitive water releases to maintain the trust of neighbors and energy markets.

Somalia’s participation, in particular, was seen by Horn of Africa observers as a diplomatic blow to Egypt. Reports suggest President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud faced strong pressure from Djibouti’s president to attend the ceremony. His decision to participate marked a setback for Cairo, especially given Somalia’s recent close ties with Egypt, including discussions about deploying Egyptian troops to Mogadishu.

Additional reports indicate that while Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed celebrated a diplomatic win, the event was a political setback for Somalia’s intelligence chief, Mahad Salad, who is rumored to have close links with Egyptian intelligence.

In the end, the inauguration of GERD stands as a landmark moment for Ethiopia, signaling the country’s renewed influence in the Horn of Africa. Yet the ultimate test lies ahead: how Addis Ababa manages the dam’s operations and whether it can secure durable agreements with its neighbors that balance regional cooperation with national ambition.

GAROWE ONLINE