From allies to foes: How Madobe's relationship with Hassan Sheikh has nosedived

KISMAYO, Somalia - A huge tussle is looming between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Jubaland leader Ahmed Madobe, over two years after the two jointly campaigned to remove Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed alias Farmajo, in Somalia’s most dramatic election.

So close were the duo that they vehemently opposed term extensions and direct polls, eventually sending Farmajo home. But as fate would have it, the two leaders whose camaraderie was evident in 2022 polls, find themselves in conflicting paths, over the same issues they tackled then.

On Monday, Madobe summoned all federal MPs from the state to Kismayo for a grand meeting between November 8th to 11th. The meeting aims to discuss the political situation and establish a united stance on key issues between Jubaland and the Federal Government, sources said.

The announcement follows reports of a dispute among Jubaland MPs in Mogadishu over their positions on the ongoing political standoff. Sources say Federal government Interior Minister Gen. Fartaag and other MPs clashed during the session, ending without a resolution.

With Madobe walking out of the National Consultative Council (NCC) citing unconstitutional changes in the country's Supreme law, Hassan Sheikh is now finding himself without one of his most trusted allies in the struggle, as the two parties mobilise for a possible showdown.

While Hassan Sheikh wants direct elections that would see citizens picking their federal and state leaders directly, Madobe, just like his Puntland counterpart Said Abdullahi Deni, argues that the move would significantly delay elections, thus leading to automatic term extensions.

Over the weekend, Hassan Sheikh appointed Madobe’s former spy chief Colonel Khalid Abdullahi Omar as the Commander of the Somali National Army (Land Forces) commander a move widely interpreted as an aggressive strategy to exert control over Jubaland.

This, analysts argue, would in the long run compel Ahmed Madobe to acquiesce to Mohamud’s authority—or risk losing his position. Despite his inexperience, Khalid has been integral in solidifying Madobe’s grip on power.

Jubaland has been fighting Al-Shabaab militants and Khalid is believed to be one of the key strategists in the Madobe administration who led concerted efforts to defeat the Al-Shabaab, even the the group still posed threats in the state.

Acknowledging the risks involved and perceiving Jess Play as just the opening salvo in President Mohamud’s campaign against him, Ahmed Madobe ordered two of his supporters within Somalia’s cabinet to resign, aiming to ignite a political earthquake in Mogadishu.

The Deputy Minister of Education and the State Minister of Planning both announced their resignations in separate statements, levelling grave accusations against the government, including the embezzlement of funds designated for combating insurgents.

Madobe would likely share with the MPs about the latest fallout with Mogadishu and possibly, look for immediate solutions to the debacle. But he maintains that Somalia ought to embrace indirect elections to avoid unnecessary term extensions.

To him, there is no adequate time to prepare for the universal suffrage elections, arguing that such an exercise demands quality time and consultations before execution is done. He maintains that there is a need for deeper consultations for the sake of the country's unity.

When he came to power, Hassan Sheikh promised to honour the constitution but his deeds, and, or misdeeds, have created a wedge between himself and his trusted allies. At the same time, he is fighting to dislodge Al-Shabaab militants who control large swathes of rural central and southern regions.

GAROWE ONLINE