REVEALED: Why Al-Shabaab intensified attacks in Somalia recent months

NAIROBI, Kenya - Al-Shabaab intensified attacks within central and southern regions, leading to a sharp response from the federal troops with assistance from the US military and the African Union forces, setting a unique trend within the same period.

Previously,  the Al-Shabaab waged sporadic attacks targeting security personnel,  government officials, and installations,  not forgetting innocent civilians. The attacks were not as frequent as in the recent weeks,  where they have suffered setbacks in the process.  

Details revealed by security officials and locals indicate that the group has been desperate to open supply routes in Middle Shabelle and Hiiraan regions — where the activities have been intense, leading to the most recent violent attacks by the fighters. 

In January,  the militants faced off with the government troops and local militias within Beera Yabaal twice, leading to massive casualties on their part. Security officials believe the group failed in its attempt to open the supply routes within the region. 

After the failure in the Hiran region, the militants crossed from a makeshift bridge built near the village of Oobaale, turned east, passed north of the Mahaday district, and sent lots of fighters into the Middle Shabelle region.

During this time, another group of Al-Shabaab fighters passed through Yaaqle as the other group of fighters entertained the AU and Somali forces in Bal’ad town with an attack, thought to have been a decoy on Feb 26.

Besides the attempts to open the supply routes, the militants are also believed to have instigated attacks within central Somalia with the main aim being freeing themselves from Mudug and Galgadud region where several fighters were besieged. 

These militants reached the outskirts of the main town of Adan Yabaal which is now besieged after three years in a limbo within Mudug and Galgadud. The group has been fighting to free itself from the siege. 

Consequently,  the fighters have forced government forces to pull back from several villages including Al-Kawthar, Daru Nicma, Ceel Cali Axmed, Boos Hareeri, Ceel Baraf, Biyo Cadde and Mirtaqwo. The militants fired mortars on Adan Yabaal but government troops are holding on.

Last week,  the Al-Shabaab detonated a bomb within Mogadishu targeting President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud — the fighting attempt on his life in as many years. Following this, the group initiated offensives in Southwest and central regions with the groups linking for the first time within Gullane. 

To assist those stuck in Galgadud and Mudug for the last three years, the  Al-Shabaab is now in the process of moving fighters into Galmudud with the team expected to move southwards once the operation is successful. 

The Al-Shabaab attack on Masaajid Cali Gaduud on March 26 poses another risk for the government forces. It could put pressure on government soldiers in Masagaway and Ceel Dheer who will now have to fight to secure the coastal supply route from Mogadishu-Cadale-Nur Dugle to Galmudug, veteran journalist and security expert Harun Maruf argues. 

With large mobilizations taking place in Middle Shabelle and Hiran region spearheaded by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the government wants to turn the tide, he says. There have been increased airstrikes against al-Shabaab. Ethiopian fighter jets, drones by Turkey, and the US, and helicopters have been active.

As a strategy to make the government engage more soldiers, the militants have again opened another frontline in Lower Shabelle,  leading to a major attack within Awdhegle town. 

This is widely believed to have been an offset attack but it gave Al-Shabaab another strategic advantage - it now controls one of the bridges that are vital to keeping Mogadishu safe from VBIEDs, which is a big security concern.

Within Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab deployed fighters who were keeping an eye on possible reinforcements from the capital. The militants have, however,  been intruding on this area from Basra (north of Mogadishu) and Gendershe area (southwest of Mogadishu) for years. 

But to portray this as a fresh “advance” towards Mogadishu is premature. The government has on the other hand intensified attacks on Al-Shabaab on several frontlines,  leading to unimaginable gains according to security forces. 

GAROWE ONLINE