Somalia’s Government Prepares South West Offensive as Ethiopia’s Role Unclear

MOGADISHU — Somalia’s federal government, led by a president nearing the end of his term, appears to be edging toward a direct confrontation with the South West State, following a sharp breakdown in relations with its leader, President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, known as Laftagareen.

What began as a political dispute late in the month of Ramadan has rapidly evolved into a combination of political pressure and military mobilization. Efforts to bring Laftagareen back into alignment with Villa Somalia reportedly failed, prompting a more assertive federal strategy that includes both political isolation and troop deployments.

Recent reports indicate that federal forces have been moved into Buurhakaba, a town located approximately 60 to 70 kilometers from Baidoa, the administrative capital of South West State. The deployment is widely seen as a significant escalation, placing federal troops within striking distance of the regional stronghold.

Security sources say two units of these forces were deployed from the Middle Shabelle region, while an additional, incomplete unit was assembled in Mogadishu. The troops reportedly traveled along the Afgooye–Buurhakaba corridor and briefly clashed overnight with Al-Shabaab fighters in the area of Yaqbiriweyne. No confirmed casualties have been reported.

Meanwhile, South West authorities have mobilized substantial defensive forces around the outskirts of Baidoa, signaling preparations for a possible confrontation.

It remains unclear what role Ethiopian peacekeeping forces stationed in Baidoa will take. Previous efforts by the federal government to persuade Addis Ababa to allow Villa Somalia to confront Laftagareen within Baidoa have failed. Those efforts culminated in a planned visit by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Addis Ababa that ultimately did not take place after he did not receive an official invitation from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Attempts by the President of Djibouti to mediate between the two leaders also failed to yield any results. Ethiopia has yet to issue an official statement on the escalating tensions in South West State, even as security experts warn that any outbreak of fighting in Baidoa could create an opportunity for Al-Shabaab to seize control of the region, which Ethiopia considers a frontline in its fight against the militant group.

Ethiopian troops have maintained a continuous presence in South West State since their initial intervention in 2011, marking more than 14 years of involvement in the region. Over that period, they have established positions in several strategic locations, including Baidoa, Hudur, Waajid, and other key areas, where they have played a central role in security operations and the fight against Al-Shabaab.

Diplomatic sources suggest that federal troops involved in the current mobilization may be equipped with weapons recently supplied by Egypt. Some reports also indicate the presence of Egyptian military advisers assisting in planning and coordination.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who has prioritized advancing constitutional changes, is also accused by critics of attempting to impose a contested electoral framework on federal member states, including those that were previously aligned with his administration.

Analysts warn that the unfolding developments could mark a dangerous turning point, potentially undermining Somalia’s fragile federal system.

A similar attempt by the federal government to assert control over Jubaland previously failed, when forces deployed to Ras Kamboni were ultimately pushed back, with some retreating across the Kenyan border.

GAROWE ONLINE