Warrants and Warfare: FGS and Jubaland in Standoff Over Election Dispute

MOGADISHU, Somalia - In retaliation that could escalate tensions between Mogadishu and Kismayo, Jubaland responded by issuing an arrest warrant against President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, hours after a Banadir court okayed apprehension of Ahmed Islam Mohamed Madobe, the regional leader who is opposed to direct polls.

The Banadir Regional Court termed Madobe a 'dangerous element' who would potentially destabilize the country and authorised his immediate arrest and prosecution. This follows a successful election in Jubaland against the wish of Villa Somalia, which is advocating for universal suffrage model.

But the Jubaland First Instance Court accused Hassan Sheikh for treason, inciting rebellion, and destabilizing the Somali state, citing multiple articles of the penal code. Jubaland’s court accuses Mohamud of inciting conflict and undermining national unity, a move observers see as a direct response to Mogadishu’s legal and military pressures on Madobe.

Further, Jubaland says Hassan Sheikh’s actions would trigger a resurgence of Al-Shabaab militants, adding that he may have conspired with them to destabilize the regional state. In both instances, there was no elaborate plan on how the warrants would be executed.

There have been military buildups in Raskamboni and El-Wak towns in Lower Jubba after the federal government dispatched the elite GorGor troops, claiming that they were taking over bases vacated by the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) soldiers, an argument disputed by Jubaland.

Active persuasions for defection targeting Jubaland regional forces were reported as Madobe mobilised his troops ready for action against the Somali National Army. The situation in the state remains tense with the government approving an 18-member committee to oversee elections.

Mogadishu claimed Madobe was in collusion with an unnamed foreign country in what 'threatens our security'. The court cited Articles 184, 186, and 217 of the Somali Penal Code, accusing Madobe of sharing classified information and undermining national security.

The international partners have called for a cessation of hostilities even as Madobe maintained that he was legitimately elected by the regional assembly for the third term. He vowed to respond to 'any aggression against our people' while condemning Hassan Sheikh for 'misrule'.

The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has expressed concern over the escalating tensions in Jubaland, particularly around the Ras-Kiyamboni area, joining many other factions from outside the country which have warned against possible civil war.

“This crisis threatens not only the stability of Jubaland but also the wider Somali region,” the ONLF stated, calling for restraint and urging all parties to “prioritize peaceful negotiations in the spirit of national unity.”

GAROWE ONLINE