Why Egypt is involved in Ethiopia-Somalia conflict

CAIRO, Egypt - The Egyptian government is embroiled in the conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia, causing jitters within the Horn of Africa, even as the region struggles to find the best solution to the brewing crisis and its possible consequences.

Over the weekend, Egypt dispatched more weapons to Somalia, a move it defended that it was part of the defense pact signed between the two countries. It is this arms delivery and impending participation in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) that has caused chaos.

Although Egypt is playing its role in assisting Somalia, analysts believe the move could be a strategic way of countering Ethiopia. Egypt is wrangling with Ethiopia over the controversial Grand Renaissance Dam which it believes will drain the Nile River waters downstream.

On the other hand, Somalia accuses Ethiopia of infringement of its territorial integrity and sovereignty after signing an agreement over access to the Red Sea with Somaliland, a breakaway region, that Addis Abeba is keen to recognize as a sovereign state.

Experts suggest Egypt's actions may be driven by strategic interests rather than genuine support for Somalia, Addis Standard reports..

Asrat Birhanu, a hydroponics researcher, argues that Egypt's involvement is "less about supporting Somalia and more about countering Ethiopia's influence in the region." He suggests Egypt is using military cooperation with Somalia to create a "geopolitical buffer against Ethiopia and gain leverage in the ongoing Nile River dispute."

For Moustafa Ahmad, a senior researcher at the United States Institute of Peace, maintains that Egypt is driven by differences it has with Ethiopia rather than the tribulations of Somalia, a member of the Arab League of Nations.

"Egypt's primary interest is in isolating Ethiopia rather than playing a constructive role in Somali security." He adds, "The failure of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiations and Ethiopia's continued filling of the dam have placed significant domestic pressure on Cairo."

Federico Donelli, a professor of International Relations at the University of Trieste, explains that Egypt's involvement is "driven by both strategy and opportunity." However, he warns of potential risks, stating, "Egyptian troops may face more vulnerabilities than they anticipate.

Tensions have risen in the region as Ethiopia maintained nothing will stop it from participating in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Somalia has ruled out the participation of Ethiopia, accusing it of aggression on its territory.

Ethiopia says it is a major security and development partner of Somalia, adding that it’s been part of the team that has spearheaded stability in the country. Recently, some residents of Southwest state protested against calls for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops.

The troops along with those from Kenya, Djibouti, Burundi, and Uganda are credited for neutralizing the Al-Shabaab threat in the region. The al-Shabaab has lost strategic towns and villages in Somalia for the last two years, the government of Somalia notes.

GAROWE ONLINE