General Berhanu Jula: If Ethiopian troops leave Somalia, Govt will collapse

ADDIS ABABA - The Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) are critical in safeguarding Somalia despite emerging conflicts of interest, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula has said, noting that the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) would collapse upon exit.

Ethiopia is currently at loggerheads with Somalia following an agreement signed between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi. The agreement if implemented, would see Ethiopia getting 20 kilometers of Red Sea for the establishment of the naval base and port in exchange for Somaliland’s recognition.

The controversial agreement has eclipsed Ethiopia's vital role in peacekeeping mission within Somalia where close to 5,000 soldiers are assisting in the crackdown against Al-Shabaab militants. Ethiopia was the first country to send troops to Somalia in 2006.

In a recent interview, Gen. Jula said the exit of Ethiopian troops from Somalia would severely affect the fight against Al-Shabaab, who have been fighting to topple the fragile UN-backed federal government of Somalia for almost two decades.

"Ethiopian military controls around 60% of Somalia's land mass," he said, noting that this has enabled the Somalia government to run. The Defense Chief further said "Many people in Somalia trust and want the Ethiopian military presence for safety and security reasons" against Al-Shabaab.

But he had a negative opinion about the federal government, arguing that "recently this has changed, with them now saying that the Ethiopian Army did nothing for them. This is ingratitude." He explained that Ethiopia's priorities are its security first, and supporting the people of Somalia second as "brothers", while Somalia's government itself is not a concern.

Ethiopian Army presence in Somalia has always triggered divided opinion. Particularly, the 2006 intervention divided Somalia’s parliament with some MPs opposing troops from bordering countries, and others supporting it. MPs who were against Ethiopia troop deployment eventually sided with the then Eritrea -based ARS alliance after the ICU was toppled by the ENDF and troops from the transitional Govt of Somalia.

It’s widely believed by security experts that al-Shabaab recruited massively during the ENDF presence from 2006. The current President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud most recently was quoted as saying that Meles Zenawi’s intervention in Somalia “produced the rise of al-Shabaab.”

ENDF withdrew from Somalia in Jan 2009 following a deadly guerrilla war by the Al-Shabaab. Then the UN-brokered deal brought ARS leader Sharif Sheikh Ahmed to become president and Ethiopian troops left as demanded by ARS.

The Ethiopian troops re-entered Somalia in Jan 2012 and became part of the AU mission. Currently, ENDF is stationed in Southwest West and Gedo, as well as three camps in the Hiran region. Most troops operating in this region are not part of the ATMIS contingent tasked to bring order to the country.

Somalia has activated the operations against Al-Shabaab in various frontlines with the soldiers killing over 3,000 militants during the first phase of operations which targeted Galmadug and Hirshabelle states. The second phase is due to kick off in Jubaland and Southwest states.

The ATMIS contingent is expected to completely withdraw by the end of this year from the country. Already, 5,000 soldiers have left the country following a successful drawdown conducted in two phases. An additional 4,000 soldiers will leave by June 2024.

GAROWE ONLINE