Is Kenya pushing for international recognition of Somaliland?

NAIROBI, Kenya - Kenya could play an integral role in the final and perhaps most critical stage in Somaliland's quest for nationhood, Garowe Online has learnt, a move which would settle one of the world's oldest conflict, which has often triggered heated debates in the Horn of Africa.

Having seceded from the larger Somalia in 1991, Somaliland's journey has been rough and uncertain, often facing backlash from the International community on its quest for recognition, but its determination and zeal has never been eroded given persistent push through diplomatic means.

And multiple sources within the Orange Democratic Movement [ODM], Kenya's defacto opposition party, intimated that a bill is being crafted which would be subjected to the National Assembly of the East Africa nation, and the move will automatically jump start the long journey to create Africa's 55th nation.

ODM, insiders said, will ride on its rather smooth cooperation with the ruling Jubilee party in parliament, to "pass the bill for the sake of pushing for stability in the larger Somalia". However, it is not clear how long the process would take but it's likely to be "soonest".

A top party official who sits in the Central Management Committee [CMC], told Garowe Online that the push to have Somaliland will have to be concluded before the end of 2022 because "we are at the pole position to have it ratified at the United Nations Security Council".

"A stable Somaliland will enable Kenya to fight insecurity threats from our neighbors Somalia. This isn't an ODM project, it is just for all of us. Remember we are having our troops out of Somalia next year and having a friendly Ethiopia, Somaliland and a stable Jubaland, it's for our common good," noted the official.

In the process of preparing a bill for debate in Kenyan parliament, another source said, ODM leader Raila Odinga, who doubles as the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure, will visit Hargeisa to "assess the situation before formally taking up the matter".

Odinga, 75, is one of the most respected eminent personalities in Africa and his reputation significantly improved when he reconciled his political nemesis cum friend, President Uhuru Kenyatta. Their famous handshake in 2018 earned them an invitation to White House early this year.

The source said Odinga's trip to Hargeisa will come "at the earliest opportunity" but did not delve into finer details. Since his handshake with Uhuru, the veteran politician has been calling shots in important domestic and international issues, including pushing for a stable and united Africa.

Kenya's delegation to Hargeisa

The reports are partly corroborated by last week's trip to Hargeisa by a delegation from Nairobi, which comprised of political leaders and investors. The team met Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi, a staunch supporter of secession ideals.

Interestingly, the delegation was lead by Junet Nur Mohamed, an ODM bureaucrat and close associate of Odinga. At home, Junet is an MP for Suna East which is situated at Odinga's Nyanza political bedrock and is the first Somali to be elected from the region.

Having steadily risen ranks within the party, which controlled Kenya's parliament in 2007 and 2013, Junet was elected as ODM Director of elections and in the National Assembly, he's the Minority Whip. This puts him at the pole position to advocate for Somaliland's quest.

At Hargeisa, the team held a 3-hour meeting with Bihi, who was accompanied by Foreign Affairs Deputy Minister Liban Yousuf Osman. Somaliland Foreign Affairs department released a video of 2 minutes which was however, muted.

"It was my utmost pleasure to receive the delegation From the Republic of Kenya led by Hon. Junet Mohamed. They had a wonderful one-day visit to the Republic Somaliland aimed to strengthen ties and cooperation of the two nations," Liban said on Twitter.

While Junet Mohamed is yet to publicly comment on his trip to Somaliland, one of his aide, Seth Odongo, popularly known as Disembe Dikembe, took on his Twitter account and hinted a possible role Kenya could play in pushing for Somaliland's quest for statehood.

"Kenya’s UNSC will be critical for Somaliland quest for statehood, which is all the more important, for this country has demonstrated to the community of nations that it can keep all its obligations," he said in a tweet, which he tagged Somaliland's representative to Kenya, Bashe Omar.

Before the Hargeisa trip by Kenyan delegation, Bashe Omar had told a local media house in Kenya that Somaliland was keen to strengthen its relationship with Kenya, citing trade as the major center of interest for the secessionist state.

"We share a long history together. But beyond that we want to strengthen our ties especially in areas of trade. I am confident this delgation will come back with positive stories about our country," he told the Kenya Television Network [KTN].

To foster the relationship, Kenya has established a liaison office in Hargeisa which is headed by Ambassador Philip Mundia Githiora, a veteran diplomat who is also a fluent Russian speaker. He served in former East Block for many years and had briefly worked in Kenya National Counter Terrorism Center.

Somaliland' quest for self-determination

Initially, the state was an independent nation having gained independence from Britain on June 26th 1960. However, the state merged with Somalia, which gained freedom from Italians four days later, forming a united republic of Somalia.

But the union failed to work, culminating into secession in 1991, after years of civil war that was engineered by military ruler, Siad Barre, who is one of largely profiled figures in Somaliland. The state runs a parallel administration from that of Mogadishu and is fairly stable.

However, efforts to gain international recognition have often flopped, with Somalia insisting that the region is part of its territory. Such pronouncements have put the two parties at loggerheads, and their strained relationship has often manifested at international stage.

Last week, Somaliland continued with its diplomatic offensive against Somalia, formally unveiling its partnership with Taiwan, another secessionist East Asia state which is claimed by People's Republic of China. Taiwan is commonly known as the Republic of China.

Taiwan accepted credentials of Mohamed Hagi, who will now serve as Somaliland's representative in Taipei. And in return, Somaliland also accepted credentials of Lou Chen-hwa, who will now head Taiwan's mission in Somaliland.

But in a rejoinder, China, through Zhao Lijian, the MFA spokesperson, dismissed the ties between Taiwan and Somaliland, arguing that the Democratic Progressive Party administration of Taiwan is acting like “a drowning person clutching at straws.”

Zhao praised Somalia's President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s statement on Saturday denouncing “Taiwan’s violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia,” and reaffirming Mogadishu’s respect for the “one China” policy.

The Chinese Ambassador to Somalia Qin Jian has visited Somaliland twice this year to try to convince its government not to move ahead with ties to Taiwan, which are said to have been formalised in February this year before the two states unveiled their MoUs last week.

What's the implications of Kenya's role towards Somaliland's quest?

The fact that Kenya was recently elected to the United Nations Security Council [UNSC] gives the approach by Somaliland a huge boost according to analysts. During the hotly contested elections in New York last month, Kenya beat Djibouti, which was enjoying support from Somalia.

Currently, Somalia and Somaliland are engaged in talks whose aim is to find "the possible way out of the crisis". Djibouti President Ismael Omar Guelleh and Ethiopian PM Ahmed Abiy brokered the talks, whose final agreement would be unveiled in one month's time.

Despite the two sides agreeing to depoliticize aid, Muse Bihi was categorically clear that Hargeisa will not accept anything less than "recognition". The meeting came almost there months after Farmajo apologised for atrocities committed by Siad Barre following his meeting with Bihi in Addis Ababa.

Rashid Abdi, an analyst on the Horn of Africa affairs notes that the decision by Odinga, and to some extent Kenya, to take a driver's seat in steering Somaliland's secession agenda, is "hard to predict". According to him, Kenya's maritime dispute with Somalia would be complicated further.

"It will be hard fought. Likely to be complicated by maritime case. There is strong pro-Somaliland view across parties. Hard to predict," says Abdi, adding that in coming months, Kenya's relationship with Somalia will be "severely strained".

Kenya and Somalia have been at loggerheads over the Indian Ocean maritime dispute for close to six years now. The matter was moved to the International Court of Justice at The Hague and would be in for hearing from March 2021.

Also, the presence of Kenya Defense Forces [KDF] in Somalia has never been comfortable with Somalia, which accuses Kenya of interfering with its domestic affairs by "establishing a parallel administration in Jubaland". Kenya has been supporting Jubaland leader Ahmed Madobe, who is instrumental in the fight against Al-Shabaab.

GAROWE ONLINE