Is Ethiopia planning to recognise Somaliland?

MOGADISHU, Somalia - Somalia's cabinet will convene on Tuesday to discuss Monday's unprecedented 'deal' between Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi, in what could trigger another round of animosity between Hargeisa and Mogadishu.

Coming a few days after a peace meeting in Djibouti involving Somalia and the breakaway region of Somaliland, the meeting between Bihi and Abiy Ahmed could potentially derail the peace deal between the two parties, which had after all announced a "truce" over the weekend.

"The cabinet will convene an emergency meeting tomorrow (Tuesday) to discuss and make decisions regarding the agreement that was said to have been reached by the Somaliland administration (northern regions of the country) and Ethiopia," state media reports.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud will chair the meeting in the presence of Prime Minister Hamsa Abdi Barre, in which could expose cracks in the Horn of Africa, and probably cause tensions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa. Ethiopia is a major security partner of Somalia.

Before the announcement by Mogadishu on the convening of a cabinet meeting, Ethiopia, and Somaliland signed a “historic” agreement that will pave the way for Ethiopia to have access to the Red Sea, Abiy Ahmed's office announced.

The Memorandum of Understanding signed by Abiy Ahmed Ali and Muse Bihi Abdi also strengthens the security, economic, and political partnership between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the statement further read.

But even in the press conference, Muse Bihi claimed that Ethiopia would be the first country to recognize Somaliland once the agreement is signed. In return, Somaliland will lease a 20-kilometer piece of land along the Red Sea to Ethiopia, a landlocked country that is keen to drop the Port of Djibouti for the entry of imports.

"We are happy to give Ethiopia 20 km of sea, and it will be the first country to recognize Somaliland," said President of Somaliland Muse Bihi Abdi after the MoU with PM Abiy Ahmed, leading to the latest charm offensive by Mogadishu.

The MoU, once actualized, paves the way to allowing Ethiopia to have commercial marine operations in the region by giving it access to a leased military base on the Red Sea, Abiy's National Security Adviser Redwan Hussien said.

Under Djibouti as a mediator, Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud held talks with Bihi last week, with the two parties pledging to closely work on bettering security situations in the country. But the meeting in Addis Ababa dismantles gains made.

Although it is not clear what diplomatic measures Somalia will take, Ethiopia has been a close partner, especially in the fight against Al-Shabaab, dispatching over 4,000 soldiers in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) who have been serving since 2007.

Somaliland broke away from Somalia in 1991 after the ouster of military leader Siad Barre and since then, it has been leading a parallel government while pushing for statehood. The United Nations Security Council insists Somaliland is part of Somalia.

Although the meeting could be Ethiopia's strategy to have its port as announced a few months ago, it is likely to cause a diplomatic rift with Mogadishu. Ideally, Ethiopia also trains Somalia troops who are actively engaged in the Al-Shabab war.

Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, has been dealing with "warlord" tags following the beastly conflict in the Tigray region which left thousands of people dead. In some other parts of Ethiopia, the country has been battling with civil war, particularly in the Oromia region.

Somalia maintains Somaliland is part of her territory and had previously warned other countries against recognizing the northern region. At Las Anod, Somaliland has been under pressure as well to let go of SSC-Khatumo regions which are pushing to be administered from Mogadishu.

GAROWE ONLINE