Somalia: End of era as Muse Bihi loses in Somaliland election

HARGEISA, Somalia - A new era will be ushered in the Somaliland region after the electoral commission declared Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi alias Irro as the president-elect, ending the six-day wait for the outcome, in a closely contested presidential poll.

The commission, under Musa Hassan's stewardship, declared Irro the winner, having scooped 63.92% of the votes, defeating his closest challenger and incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi, who managed 34.81%. The results indicate that UCID's Faisal Warabe came a distant third.

Before the elections, the top candidates wrestled through intensive campaigns, with the state of the economy, recognition of the region, democratic space, and foreign 'relations' dominating the campaigns. All sides pledged to resuscitate the ailing economy.

A seasoned diplomat with enormous experience, Irro first joined Somalia politics in 2002, running for a parliamentary seat on UCID and would later serve as the speaker of the House of Representatives for close to 12 years. In 2012, he founded the Waddani party, the majority formation in Somaliland.

During the 2017 elections, Irro lost to Muse Bihi, a Somali pilot, who has served the secessionist region for 7 years having succeeded Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud alias Silanyo, who passed away this week before the outcome of the elections.

The international community termed the election 'fair and credible' but raised serious administrative and procedural violations concerns, adding that 'this can be cured in subsequent exercises'. Over 1 million people participated in the universal suffrage exercise, the first of its kind in Somalia in as many years.

The results have little variance from the projection of Garowe Online, which predicted the victory of Irro by 54% to Bihi's 42% after conducting independent polls just before the elections.

Challenges Ahead After Elections

Irro is taking over in a smooth transition as the region showcases its maturity in the international sphere as it pushes for recognition as an independent state. Somaliland declared self-independence in 1991 but three decades later, this remains but only an abstract dream.

One of the most complex challenges Irro would face is the current geopolitics after Bihi signed an agreement with Ethiopia, which if implemented, would see Somalia losing 20 kilometers of access to the Red Sea where Ethiopia intends to do a military base and port.

In return, the agreement, states, that Ethiopia shall recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. However, Mogadishu has dismissed the MoU, terming it as 'fraudulent, null and void'. Consequently, the drums of war and crescendo are resonating within the Horn of Africa.

Whether his diplomatic credentials as a long-term envoy of Somalia in the Soviet Union would be helpful, Irro would certainly have to face this monumental challenge — to embrace diplomacy over the agreement or go on, and implement it as presented by the outgoing regime.

In an interview with Addis Standard, Irro insisted that 'we can only decide on going through the agreement'. But he seemed to support the idea of Ethiopia commercially accessing the Red Sea through the Berbera port.

Somalia is courting Egypt ahead of the transition to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), ruling out the participation of Ethiopia, a nation it now terms as 'hostile'. Ethiopia on the other hand, says its intention is 'pure and diplomatic'.

Democratic space in Somaliland

As the quest for statehood rings, Irro will have to make his local policy open on democratization, bearing in mind that the region has traditionally battled the tag of 'bad governance and violation of human rights'. Freedoms of speech and press in Somaliland are limited.

For instance, throughout the campaigns, Irro's campaign team faced frequent harassment from authorities with journalists who report violations of human rights and the rule of law often being detained without trial, a habit that has drawn attention to the international community.

In parliament, Irro will have a supreme majority after Waddani won 31 seats of the available 82, and its close partnership with UCID could seal the numerical strength in the event the outfit authorizes its 21 members to support the government.

Consequently, analysts believe the challenge would be; leading through actions without abusing the parliamentary superior strength. Deportation of critics in Somaliland is more frequent, with those rallying for union often blocked from entering Hargeisa.

But with a fairly stable executive, judiciary, and legislator, Somaliland can effectively claim its stake in the world. Regional powers led by Kenya and Ethiopia have been working closely with it given sustainable peace and security unlike in the rest of Somalia.

The election in the region — direct polls— would give Somalia a major challenge as it begins implementation of the universal suffrage model, which was last used in 1969. Already, Puntland and Jubaland have claimed term extension burdens, ruling out direct polls any time soon.

GAROWE ONLINE