Somalia at the Crossroads—A Nation Caught Between Its Own Destiny and Foreign Rivalries

EDITORIAL | As Somalia charts its course out of the shadows of state collapse, we are reminded of an age-old principle, one that resonates through the annals of history: a nation must tread carefully in its alliances, lest it find itself shackled to the ambitions of others. The Horn of Africa, a place of rich history and strategic significance, has become the chessboard for regional and international powers, each pursuing their own ambitions in a delicate dance of diplomacy and rivalry. At the heart of this is Somalia—a country that, after three decades of strife, stands at a pivotal crossroads.

The images before us—Somali leaders signing agreements and shaking hands with Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Egypt—represent more than just political posturing. They are snapshots of a greater geopolitical contest, where the ambitions of foreign states risk making Somalia a battleground once again, this time in a war of influence. At a moment when Somalia should be focusing on its own reconstruction and the defeat of Al-Shabaab, these alliances hold the dangerous potential to divert the nation into conflicts not of its own making.

Consider the case of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who, during his tenure, aligned Somalia closely with Eritrea and Ethiopia—a move that drew scrutiny for its lack of transparency and failure to unite the Somali people behind a common foreign policy vision. In the pursuit of regional security, Somalia found itself entangled in the complexities of Ethiopia’s internal strife and Eritrea’s autocratic grip. This alignment raised eyebrows as the image of a sovereign Somali state seemed increasingly compromised by the ambitions of neighbors with their own axes to grind.

Now, under the leadership of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, we see the pendulum swinging in another direction. Egypt, the long-time rival of Ethiopia over the vital waters of the Nile, now features in Somalia’s foreign relations. This shift, while presenting new opportunities, carries its own risks. With the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam at the heart of the Egypt-Ethiopia conflict, is Somalia being dragged into a water war that has little to do with its national interests?

This is the peril of divided allegiances. When a nation, still fragile and recovering from decades of conflict, aligns with foreign powers that themselves stand at odds, it runs the risk of becoming a proxy, a pawn in a greater game of power politics. While our leaders shake hands in gilded halls, the threats to Somali sovereignty grow more pronounced. The dangers of such entanglements are not theoretical—they are all too real. Somalia’s post-collapse history is one of foreign influence—each actor claiming to offer salvation, while in truth advancing their own agendas.

What is most troubling about this precarious balance of power is the risk it poses to Somalia’s internal cohesion. The federal system, fragile at the best of times, is being strained under the weight of regional tensions. As the government in Mogadishu aligns itself with competing external forces, the regional states—already wary of federal overreach—may begin to question their place in a nation whose foreign policy is dictated by the whims of its neighbors. This fragmentation plays directly into the hands of Al-Shabaab, an enemy ever ready to exploit disunity for its own gains.

Make no mistake, the Somali people have faced far worse than the complexities of foreign diplomacy. But in these delicate times, with a nation rebuilding brick by brick, the alliances it forges must be guided by a single principle: the interests of Somalia first. John L. O’Sullivan, in his spirited defense of American destiny, once warned against the perils of foreign interference in national growth. The same applies here. Somalia must resist the siren song of regional allegiances that could drag it into conflicts for which it has no stake.

The future of this nation is being shaped not by the decisions of foreign capitals, but by the aspirations of its people. The fight against Al-Shabaab, the reconstruction of cities, and the rebuilding of institutions—all these are Somali struggles, and Somali successes. As we look to the horizon, let us not be distracted by the glimmer of short-term alliances. Somalia’s destiny, like that of all great nations, will be determined by the courage and unity of its people, not by the manipulations of others.

The challenge before us is not an easy one. The waters of international diplomacy are treacherous, and Somalia’s leaders must navigate them with wisdom, avoiding the pull of external conflicts that threaten to undo the progress made thus far. Our focus must be inward, our mission clear: to secure our borders, defeat terrorism, and build a nation that stands united under the banner of its own sovereignty. In doing so, we will not only secure our place in the world but prove, once again, that the resilience of the Somali people is stronger than the ambitions of foreign powers.

Let this be our rallying cry. Somalia is no longer the battleground of others—it is our own. Let us ensure it stays that way.

GAROWE ONLINE