Somalia’s Political Crossroads: Will President Hassan Sheikh Follow the Path He Once Rejected?

EDITORIAL | In a familiar setting of political maneuvering, Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, is hosting a high-stakes meeting between the federal government and state leaders. Four of the country’s state presidents are in attendance, but the notable absence of Puntland signals a deeper divide. At the core of this gathering are issues that have long plagued Somalia’s fragile democracy: looming state elections and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s strategy for navigating the complex challenges facing his administration.

But this isn’t just another political conference. It carries with it the weight of a nation’s uncertainty, a simmering discontent that political insiders know too well. As hours passed since the meeting began, warnings began to echo from across the political landscape. Prominent figures cautioned against the possibility of an unconstitutional term extension for regional leaders, a move that could trigger a new wave of instability. The message was clear: tampering with the electoral process, even subtly, risks reopening old wounds that have barely begun to heal.

A President’s Intentions: A Story of Contradictions

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who first held office from 2012 to 2017 and was re-elected in 2022, now faces a moment of reckoning. Once a vocal critic of political manipulation and term extensions during his opposition to the administration of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, Hassan Sheikh now finds himself in a position eerily similar to the one he once condemned.

Critics have been quick to point out the contradictions in his leadership. Since his return to office, allegations have surfaced of rampant corruption, a centralized government increasingly surrounded by loyal political allies, and a federal system under threat. The very institutions he once championed, such as the Federal Parliament, have been paralyzed, with the Upper House particularly marginalized. Meanwhile, without broad consultation, he has reopened debates around the federal constitution, igniting a new political firestorm.

At the center of this storm is the question of term extensions for state leaders, particularly in South West State and Jubaland. Reports suggest that negotiations are already underway to extend the terms of these leaders in exchange for their support. The move raises the specter of President Hassan Sheikh seeking his own term extension, under the guise of implementing long-promised electoral reforms—reforms that would theoretically transition Somalia to a “one person, one vote” system.

Political Calculations and the Road to 2026

Political analysts see through the thinly veiled promises. They argue that the state administrations stand to benefit from such an extension, hoping to align their tenure with the national government’s term, set to expire in 2026. This political calculus is not new in Somalia, where the line between governance and personal political survival has often blurred. Since the collapse of the central government in 1991, Somalia’s leaders have consistently kept the country’s electoral process in a state of uncertainty, manipulating it to maintain their grip on power.

We have been here before. During his presidency, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo attempted to orchestrate a transition to a one-person, one-vote system, only to face fierce resistance, led in large part by none other than Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. At the time, Hassan Sheikh rallied against the dangers of extending terms under the pretext of electoral reform. But now, the same question hangs in the air: Will President Hassan Sheikh, once the champion of democratic integrity, embrace the very strategy he previously denounced if it means securing his own political future?

The nation watches, waiting to see if Hassan Sheikh will succumb to the political temptations of his predecessors or if he will rise above, honoring the democratic principles he once so passionately defended. In a country where the past often shadows the present, the choices made in these next few months could define not just Hassan Sheikh’s legacy, but the future of Somalia’s fragile institutions.

GAROWE ONLINE