Somalia : How Long Can Ahmed Madobe Hide from the Political Storms?

EDITORIAL |In Somalia’s intricate web of clan politics, both federal and state leaders share responsibility for the country’s political turbulence. One such figure is Ahmed Mohamed Islam, better known as Ahmed Madobe, the President of Jubaland, a key Federal member state in southern Somalia. As his term draws to a close, Madobe’s absence from the political scene has raised eyebrows and intensified speculation. Official sources suggest he has been abroad for health reasons, but his disappearance from public life has left many wondering: how long can he avoid the swirling political storms?

Madobe recently secured a crucial victory in his political maneuvering. The Jubaland Parliament, loyal to him, amended the regional constitution, removing a clause that would have prevented him from seeking another term as president. This political coup, however, came at a cost. The last meeting of the National Consultative Council (NCC), a critical gathering of Somali federal and regional leaders, was supposed to take place in Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, but was postponed due to Madobe’s alleged illness.

The Somali presidency, known as Villa Somalia, had hoped to use the NCC meeting to tackle thorny constitutional issues, particularly those regarding the long-disputed sections of the federal charter. One key item on the agenda was the electoral timetable for state elections, particularly in Jubaland and South West State—regions where the incumbents, including Madobe, are vying for renewed mandates. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Somalia’s central leader, reportedly sent an investigative team to Kenya to verify the legitimacy of Madobe’s illness. The underlying question: is Madobe truly unwell, or is he buying time to prepare for the political storm ahead?

For seasoned observers of Somali politics, the relationship between Villa Somalia and Ahmed Madobe has always been a tinderbox, with sparks flying whenever critical decisions arise. Their alliance is described as a “smoldering ember,” liable to burst into flames at the slightest provocation. Tensions simmer, but they haven’t yet reached the boiling point. However, those familiar with the central-regional power dynamics suggest that it’s only a matter of time before that relationship is tested.

Complicating matters further is the role of Abdiaziz Laftagareen, the President of South West State, another leader whose political survival hinges on managing relations with Villa Somalia. Laftagareen, a close ally of Madobe, appears to be navigating these turbulent waters more deftly, perhaps offering a preview of how Madobe might proceed. Both leaders face the looming reality of electoral competition in regions where Villa Somalia’s influence is increasingly felt.

Adding to Madobe’s political calculus is the presence of Somalia’s Prime Minister, Hamza Abdi Barre, a Jubaland native and a key figure in the central government. Barre and Madobe share a clan affiliation, but their political interests are not always aligned. Barre’s rising influence in Villa Somalia’s corridors of power could put added pressure on Madobe to fall in line with Mogadishu’s political roadmap.

For now, Madobe’s political future remains shrouded in uncertainty. Sources close to Villa Somalia suggest that President Hassan Sheikh is carefully playing his cards, waiting for the right moment to apply pressure on the Jubaland leader. There’s little doubt that Villa Somalia is strategizing, with Jubaland a key piece in its broader game of Somali state-building. How Madobe chooses to react will determine not only his political fate but also the future trajectory of Jubaland.

Madobe’s first test will come when he returns to the political stage. His allies and rivals alike are watching closely, waiting for him to make his next move. The postponed NCC meeting will serve as a barometer of his influence. Will he reassert control over his political destiny, or will the forces arrayed against him, both within Villa Somalia and within his region, finally overtake him?

As Somalia inches towards elections and the stakes rise, Ahmed Madobe’s political journey will provide crucial insights into the future of regional power in Somalia. His ability to navigate the winds of change—or resist them—will define his legacy. But one thing is certain: the political storms gathering around him show no signs of abating.

GAROWE ONLINE