Somalia: Hassan’s Presidency two years after 2012 election

After eight years of transitional governments, Somalia got a permanent government that enjoys wider recognition in September 2012. Civil society activist and novice in politics Hassan Sheikh Mohamud swept to power but at public places citizens are debating his presidency two years after the hotly contested presidential election in war-torn Mogadishu.

Among the questions besetting political ring are, what are the achievements of Somalia Federal Government?, Did Mohamud deliver on promises expressed in fine oratory in September 2012? And what are Somali people expecting from President Mohamud in the coming years?

Sources familiar with Somali politics say, Mohamud has yet to translate presidential speech into practical policies while some may argue the government did at least something.

Security

Though, militants fighting for Al Qaeda’s largest network in Africa fled a string of strategic towns in southern and central Somalia, central government was unable to create an environment conducive for developments and recovery.

At the beginning of 2014, Al Shabaab intensified attacks on military and soft targets, mainly in Mogadishu where the Federal government is based, killing popular officials and storming heavily militarized zones including Villa Somalia Presidential Compound, parliament house, supreme court building and national intelligence base.

Weak counter-terrorism policies as well as the visible clout of former warlords are believed to have fuelled the growing insecurity which continues to undermine already-established vast outreach.

The killing of many lawmakers in the Federal parliament exposed the frailty of security apparatuses and the sacking of officials in charge of key offices from the job has not potentially abated deep-seated culture of terrorism.

Rampant corruption and International concerns

On 16 September 2013, International Community endorsed Somali compact in an effort to let Somali political leaders usher in permanent order and rebuild the war-ravaged horn of Africa nation with colossal amount of financial pledge.

Somalia was expected to inject financial support into stability, development sector, social services improvement, economic boom and speeding up of federalization process, nevertheless as of yet much more needs to be implemented.

Rampant corruption which turned public institutions to a patronage system became stumbling block to the handover of funds being allotted for Somalia at Brussels.

The resignation of Central Bank Boss Yusur Abrar whose fiduciary responsibilities went to presidential aides  in October 2013 dealt blow to Mohamud’s administration and shortly Turkey temporarily stopped cash aid to Somalia in February 2014 after reports of funds misappropriation surfaced. About 80% of revenues generated from Adan Ade International airport and Mogadishu seaport remain unaccounted for.

UN monitors and International diplomats also pointed accusing fingers at Mohamud and his right hand woman, former foreign affairs Minister Fowsiyo Yusuf Haji Adan.

State-building, Federalization

According to critics, Mohamud is anti-federalism figure and exercised blatant hostility to show off lackadaisical power in the course of his presidency. So far, only Jubaland proceeded to functioning Federal state within the Federal Republic of Somalia and deeply embedded political division continues to sabotage the formation of southwest and central states.

Federal Government expressed its keenness on influencing the state-building process by either voicing support for functionary politicians or installing spoilers, notably former warlords to prevent loose federalization from implementation.

When Mohamud came to power in 2012, he locked horns with former Puntland leader Dr. Abdirahman Farole. Pressing ahead with fragmentation moves, Mogadishu-based Federal Government blocked Sudanese scholarship positions and made south-central regions a hub for foreign aid.

The hottest political crisis loom for central state consisting of Mudug and Galgaduud as the state that forms the tip of horn of Africa, Puntland seeks explanation over the inclusion of Mudug in central Federal state map.

Day-to-day activities

Federal Government of Somalia created job opportunities for university graduates in Mogadishu, failing to exert credible authority on other regions. Outside Mogadishu, Puntland and Somaliland established local initiatives and boosted own governance system.

“Somalia is not Mogadishu and the federal government shouldn’t send international aid only into Mogadishu,” Abdullahi Mohamed, a local political analyst in Bossaso port city told Garowe Online.

Without putting the Turkish-funded development projects under the spotlight, social services infrastructure such as health facilities and schools in the other parts of the country face formidable difficulties and remain maligned.

Extensive efforts led to the arrival of foreign diplomats, with over dozen countries opening embassies in volatile Mogadishu between 2013 and 2014.

Meanwhile, areas acquiesced to strict rule of Al Qaeda linked Al Shabaab militants are now remaining under the control of Somali government troops aided by African Union peacekeepers.

Although Al Shabaab lost much of southern and central Somalia in intense military campaign, security threats linger over Mogadishu over the death of Al Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane who was killed in US drone attack.

The years ahead

Somalia is unlikely to host direct elections by 2016 when Mohamud’s tenure of office would expire. Given the growing security concerns, poor federalism, economic hardship and sluggish governance, Somali leaders need to adopt a new roadmap to stop the country from getting stuck on the roadway ahead.

Federal Government has yet to normalize ties with Puntland which re-suspended cooperation with Mogadishu in late July in a dispute over the formation of an autonomous state in central Somalia.

Turkey-brokered bilateral talks between Mogadishu and Somaliland’s separatist administration could be another conundrum for Mohamud over the coming two years and unless Mogadishu crafts viable political strategies, things will be getting worse.

Poor leadership of Mohamud who last week celebrated his second anniversary in office can make impeachment an unavoidable and most possible option before 2016. 

Garowe Online Editorial
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