As Taliban runs over Afghanistan, will Somalia draw lessons in Al-Shabaab fight?
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Staff reporter GAROWE ONLINE
- Posted On 16-08-2021, 06:25AM
KABUL, Afghanistan - Within a few days, Afghanistan had fallen to the Taliban, a move that could plunge the Asian nation into a possible collapse, following years of civil war that saw even the United States military intervene.
After 20 years of “tiresome” Afghan war, the US is set to end its mission in a matter of days. But despite the reported 300,000 Afghan armies and police trained by the international community, the Taliban are on the verge of taking over most of the country.
Already, the Taliban has taken over the central and south Asian nation's capital, Kabul, leading to chaotic scenes of residents trying to run away from the country for their own safety. Taliban leadership is waiting for the formal transfer of power.
Taliban fighters take control of the Afghan presidential palace after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country to Tajikistan or Uzbekistan on Sunday, August 15, 2021.
Residents in Herat and Kandahar say they cannot believe how quickly both cities fell after the Taliban’s weeks-long effort to take Afghanistan’s largest cities. “They literally sold us out, there was no Govt resistance,” one female resident of Kandahar told Al-Jazeera.
The US has started evacuating embassy workers including the local staff and their families. The situation around the country remains uncertain as thousands dry their bank accounts for fear of anarchy under the Taliban regime.
But at home in Somalia, the events almost relate to those in Afghanistan, given that the government has been depending on the African Union Mission Forces [AMISOM], which have for over a decade taken over security responsibilities in Somalia.
The forces were closely aided by American troops, who have since withdrawn. Although their ate genuine efforts were to redeploy US troops to Somalia, the US withdrew 700 servicemen, further weakening security in the country, a move that triggered heightened Al-Shabaab activities.
With the US now away from Somalia, the AMISOM team is also preparing an imminent exit, a move that will complicate the security fortunes of the Horn of Africa nation. Somali forces have evidently struggled to counter Al-Shabaab, which still controls large swathes of rural central and southern Somalia.
A report published by the United Nations recently established that the Al-Shabaab group collects more taxes than the fragile, UN-backed Somalia administration. Although they have been drastically weakened, Al-Shabaab remains a "potential" threat according to State Department.
The Africa Union Mission has been in Somalia since March 2007. AMISOM numbers just under 20,000, and is now looking for a way out. AU experts recently proposed a hybrid mission of the AU & UN after 2021, with a mix of police (50%), military personnel (35%), and civilians (15%).
By the end of 2021, the Somali forces are set to take the lead in security responsibilities, but are they ready? Security officials say they are, but officials want the AU to align its operations with Somali-led transitional plan including readying mobile forces and not just sit in bases, reckons Harun Maruf, the author of Inside Al-Shabaab.
In terms of numbers, SNA was to number at least 18,000 strong forces excluding special forces and airforce, per 2017 security architecture; plus 32,000 federal and state police including coastguard and Darwish, and additional 500 Danab forces in each of the 8 SNA sectors.
The 2017 security architecture was devised by the federal government and federal member states - policy and strategy for national security council; implementation for the regional security council. Relations at the federal and regional levels were stagnant since 2018.
Somalia is currently conducting elections but there are fears that should foreign peacekeepers leave the country, the Al-Shabaab militants could be re-energized, a move that could even cause more chaos in the Horn of Africa nation. Al-Shabaab has been trying to topple the fragile UN-backed Somalia administration.
“We are cognizant that AMISOM cannot stay in Somalia forever. Therefore, AMISOM must continue transitioning security responsibility to Somali Security Forces in post-2021 and all agreed security arrangements must be in line with FGS policies and priorities” Amb Osman told the UN security council, Thursday.
Security expert Adan Abdulle believes that the country shouldn't depend so much on foreign troops. According to him, the country should better its approach by not only changing strategy but also through the employment of psychology in the war against Al-Shabaab.
"Mere presence of foreign troops is a force multiplier. The psychological safety inherent in AMISOM Somalia's presence is often overlooked by Somali commentators and politicians. War is as much a matter of psychology as it’s about any other aspect of warfighting," he notes.
GAROWE ONLINE
