Inside AU report on AMISOM future in Somalia

MOGADISHU, Somalia - A report published by an independent team assessing the future of AMISOM in Somalia has exposed some of the underlying factors, which may after all delay the much-anticipated exit of the team from the Horn of Africa nation, after a decade of peacekeeping.

According to the report which was exclusively seen by Garowe Online, the dysfunctional relationship between the FGS and FMS has contributed to political instability and insecurity. Further, it notes, failure to establish local governance structures and the absence of public services in the newly liberated areas affect the realization of the stabilization process.

Also, the intensive intra- and inter-clan clashes over resources have increased insecurity for communities. This, it says, has led AS to provide alternative governance, services, justice, and even levy taxes which the FGS and FMS cannot do.

The key to the stabilization of Somalia is the implementation of the STP, requiring the SSF to take primary responsibility for Somalia's defense and security functions. Force generation and integration remain a major challenge, the report says.

In addition, lack of political consensus on the implementation of major decisions agreed upon at the national level impacts negatively on force generation and integration. Unless the political differences are resolved the STP will not be achieved in the short, medium and long term post 202, the reports noted.

As such, the drafters have come up with four options on the future of AMISOM in Somalia, which have already been rejected by the government of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo. The government said it will issue an elaborate statement over the same matter.

The first option was to establish an AU-UN Multidimensional Stabilisation Mission in Somalia [AU-UNMIS]. Under this plan, AMISOM would fully transition into an AU-UN multidimensional stabilization mission in Somalia deployed under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

In the current context, there is the need for a holistic and comprehensive multidimensional approach, beyond the security and stabilization process, which has dominated the last 14 years.

The nucleus of the security components would be constituted by the contingents currently serving in AMISOM, subject to an assessment of their capabilities, and would be augmented as necessary to respond to the new realities such as the opening of new sectors.

The second option, the report says, could be an AU Multidimensional Stabilisation Support to Somalia [or Reconfigured AMISOM]. The perception that AMISOM is predominantly a combat force is therefore obsolete.

A new AU mission in Somalia, the drafters said, must include a strong political component, which is AU-led coordinating with UN and other international partners. AMISOM has operated as a multidimensional peace enforcement operation deployed in a non-permissive environment.

The report further said the third option could be the deployment of the East Africa Standby Force [EASF]. The AU PSC shall utilize the African Standby Force [ASF] concept by mandating the East Africa Standby Force [EASF] and other regional Standby Forces to deploy to enhance peace, security, and stabilization in Somalia.

Some of the countries in the region are currently deployed as part of AMISOM. Securing coordinated, predictable, and sustainable financing from the UN and international partners. The countries of the region will mobilize the necessary equipment for the implementation of the mandate.

The fourth option involves the possibility of an AMISOM Exit and assumption by SSF of security responsibilities under STP post-2021. There is a perception that FGS is increasingly losing confidence in the AU involvement in stabilization in Somalia.

The rejection of the AU Envoy by the FGS, and the failure by FGS to engage the AU-IA Team until after the final report had already been submitted to the Commission, at a time of uncertainty in the security and political situation, and mistrust among the political actors in Somalia, sends a message that African Union involvement in Somalia is not welcomed by the political actors.

This option will require the direct support of the international community and bilateral partners to FGS, in view of the strategic interests pursued by these partners in Somalia. AMISOM exit could be accomplished in six months.

In conclusion, the report says that Somalia must among others, genuinely implement their 27 May 2021 Agreement, finalize the Constitutional
the review process, resolve all outstanding issues, and urgently establish the Constitutional Court to resolve future disputes between the FGS and the FMS regarding their respective powers and responsibilities under the Federal Constitution of Somalia.

Also, it added, FGS and FMS, in collaboration with Civil Society Organisations [CSOs], should undertake civic education to inculcate the principles of federalism enunciated under Chapter V of the 2012 Provisional Federal Constitution of Somalia.

GAROWE ONLINE