Is operation against Al-Shabaab losing momentum in Somalia?

MOGADISHU, Somalia - For the last seven months, Somalia has experienced relative stability following sustained operations against Al-Shabaab militants, with Somali National Army [SNA], US Africa Command, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia [ATMIS] and local militia cooperating for the first time in decades.

Throughout this period, the joint operations have yielded significant gains, with Al-Shabaab losing territories in central areas and southern parts, particularly in Galmadug and HirShabelle states. The operation had blessings from President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the man who pledged "total war" against the militants.

Recently, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced that the second phase had commenced in Jubaland and Southwest states, with the state remaining silent on whether the non-ATMIS troops requested from Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti had made their way to the country.

The non-ATMIS troops are to stay in Somalia for three months under the command of the Somali National Army, Hassan Sheikh said. This, he added, will not affect the scheduled exit of ATMIS soldiers from the country, with the first batch of 2000 set to exit in the next three weeks.

But investigations by The Dossier show intensive activities against Al-Shabaab are at a halt despite the fact that the first phase managed to eliminate at least 3000 militants. In recent times, sources say, the clan mobilization against the group which gave birth to Ma'awisley fighters, has significantly reduced.

This coupled with a pause of anti-al-Shabaab military operations comes at a time when the militant group is conducting targeted raids against African Union and Somali government troops, leading to massive setbacks in the country.

On May 26, Al-Shabaab fighters stormed African Union Transition Mission in Somalia base killing several soldiers attached to the Uganda People's Defense Forces [UPDF]. While Kampala places fatalities at 54, the Al-Shabaab, who after all run a propaganda machine, said 137 soldiers were killed.

A number of analysts have often questioned the strategy being used by the government to fight Al-Shabaab, with a number of leaders admitting that community-based mobilization was facing severe challenges, especially in Hiiraan, a former stronghold of the militants.

The governor of the Hiran region Ali Jeyte Osman, who has become a symbol of mobilizations warns that military campaigns against Al-Shabaab, will not succeed without local ownership, analysts argue, even as the government targets Jubaland and Southwest states in the country.

Somalia defense officials insist that local community fighters have a role in the current strategy. There are some who believe that arming local fighters could be detrimental in the future and might complicate the state-building process, given that disarmament could be a tedious process.

The tribal militia has played a key role in ejecting Al-Shabaab given their knowledge of topography across Somalia and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has often insisted on their role. Whether they will be involved in Jubaland and Southwest is a story for another day.

Al-Shabaab militants have been fighting to topple the fragile UN-backed federal government of Somalia for the last almost two decades but their efforts have often hit the snag. By 2024, it is anticipated that the SNA troops will assume full security responsibilities from the foreign troops.

GAROWE ONLINE