Tough times for PM Roble amid a fresh electoral dispute in Somalia

MOGADISHU, Somalia - On December 5th, 2021, FGS Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Rooble received former Prime Minister Omar Sharmarke in his office, in a sign that Mr. Rooble is attempting to deal with the brewing political storm of the stalled Somalia federal elections by widely consulting with all stakeholders.

However, with determined and entrenched political forces to rig the election in favor of outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo's re-election with the help of allied federal members states, and both Puntland and Jubaland leaders losing momentum to oppose Farmajo election politicking, it is unlikely that Mr. Rooble will succeed to make any meaningful progress toward credible elections.

The union of presidential candidates has not faired any better in coming up with a winning strategy to ensure sustained political pressure is mounted on FGS and FMSs to hold fair and credible elections. In addition to the utter failure of Somalia’s internal stakeholders, Somalia’s international and regional partners have shown deep divisions and a lack of focus to support credible elections in the country.

All of these point to a looming political crisis that would significantly impact the country’s stability both politically and securely. There are a number of scenarios to consider if efforts to right Somalia’s federal elections ship are to succeed:

Scenario 1: Mr. Rooble seriously appreciates the enormity of his responsibility in ensuring the country survives this tumultuous political period and with the help of Somalia’s partners guides the election process by forcing a review of electoral procedures and processes previously agreed by the FMS leaders but whose certain clauses were objected by the council of presidential candidates and other stakeholders such as Mr. Sharmarke.

The council of presidential candidates complained about electoral procedures concerning the civil society selection process, definition of traditional elders, subjecting sitting MPs to FMS background checks among other processes perceived to empower FMS leaders to rig the elections.

A successful outcome of this scenario would include revised and agreed electoral processes by all stakeholders, and a restart of elections in a transparent matter. It is expected that Farmajo and his allies will fiercely oppose this approach, requiring sustained support of international partners.

Scenario 2: Mr. Rooble fails to meaningfully intervene in current rigged election processes, and the council of presidential candidates resorts to violence in Mogadishu. Inevitably, political divisions even deepen further resulting in worsening political and security situations in the country.

This would result in either divisive presidential elections being held with the disputed outcomes or incumbent leaders staying in office much longer than agreed or necessary with questionable legitimacy. This would lead to prolonged political and security divisions and risk significant setbacks in Somalia’s political reconciliation and governance structures.

Scenario 3: No meaningful electoral procedures are agreed or carried out but a council of presidential candidates gets weakened by internal divisions, and Puntland and Jubaland play along, paving the way for elections to be held with minimal credibility and trust.

In this scenario, the resultant political leadership will have to do extensive outreach and will probably spend significant time and resources to reconcile and heal the legacy deficit of trust. It may or may not succeed to achieve the objective and presents a risk Somalia cannot take.

Scenario one represents the best possible option for the country to move forward. In a nutshell, it means to stop the election process NOW, CORRECT the electoral procedures and ACHIEVE buy-in and agreement from the council of presidential elections and other stakeholders in the electoral process.

GAROWE ONLINE