What prompted the US decision to redeploy troops in Somalia?
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Staff reporter GAROWE ONLINE
- Posted On 30-05-2022, 07:28AM
MOGADISHU, Somalia - It's now evident that the US will be dispatched at least 500 soldiers to Somalia in the coming days, just over a year after their unceremonious exit, which was occasioned by a strategy to reduce expenses incurred on troops abroad.
Joe Biden's administration was keen to have the soldiers back to the country, following an outcry from senior government and opposition politicians in Somalia besides strong backing from the Senate and Pentagon, which had initially opposed withdrawal plans.
And the decision to redeploy the troops may have arrived after consideration of several factors, according to Prof. Paul Williams, in his detailed analysis with the.conversation.com, a website that focuses on African affairs.
According to the international affairs scholar, the redeployment was not a change of policy, rather, it was all about logistics because the soldiers will continue to execute the tasks as before. But this time, they will be staying in Somalia rather than commuting to the country.
The redeployment, he opines, may have been triggered by the deteriorating security within the country due to skyrocketing Al-Shabaab attacks targeting the African Union Transition Mission [ATMIS] soldiers, civilians, and government troops.
After the exit of the US soldiers in 2021, the Department of Defense noted, the Al-Shabaab attacks in Somalia have increased by almost 17% with more raids happening near the capital Mogadishu. This, he notes, may have worried the US which is keen to degrade the militants.
Biden administration has been conducting reviews on the presence of American soldiers in Somalia and it may have been convinced that they rather operate from within rather than outside. The troops have been mainly commuting from Kenya and Djibouti.
Also, America may have been encouraged by the cooperation of new President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who lauded the move once details were made public. A senior adviser to the new president agreed, saying Trump’s decision to withdraw was “a wrong” and “hasty decision” that “disrupted counterterrorism operations.”
The role of the US military in Somalia will not change after all given that they will still focus on military activities, political, economic, and humanitarian dimensions. The overall goal is to stabilize the country, contain and weaken al-Shabaab, and build an effective set of state institutions.
US Africa Command will be training the Danab Special Forces, a contingent of the Somali National Army [SNA] besides providing aerial bombardments and surveillance for the ATMIS and Somali soldiers during operations against Al-Shabaab militants, he adds.
Under the agreement, the aerial strikes are impactful given the level of destruction against the Al-Shabaab. The US Africa Command started issuing quarterly reports on civilian casualties, a move that was lauded by stakeholders promoting peace in Somalia.
The core problem is the lack of an agreement among Somali political, religious, and business elites on how to govern their country. This is reflected in the lack of a finalized constitution, lack of agreement on the nature of federal governance, and the lack of agreement on Somalia’s national security architecture.
Al-Shabaab is one symptom of this lack of consensus about governing Somalia. It has proved a deadly and resilient opponent for over 15 years with the ability to generate the resources, fighters, and administrative systems to carry out a persistently high tempo of attacks.
At an operational level al-Shabaab remains the biggest challenge facing US troops. According to the Biden administration’s assessment, al-Shabaab has “unfortunately only grown stronger” since Trump’s December 2020 decision to withdraw.
A White House official is quoted as saying that al-Shabaab “has increased the tempo of its attacks, including against US personnel” and that its “upward battlefield and financial trajectory” has the potential “to generate more space for the group to plan and ultimately to execute external attacks.”
At the political and strategic levels, notes, however, success will entail ending the war against al-Shabaab. Since the military defeat of the militants seems highly unlikely, progress would involve encouraging reconciliation between Somalia’s elites. This should include starting a political dialogue with al-Shabaab about how to negotiate an end to the war.
Al-Shabaab remains a threat to the stability of the country given their grasp of rural and urban areas in the country, particularly the Shabelle region. The militants still control large swathes of rural central and southern Somalia according to the United States.
GAROWE ONLINE
