Blow to Farmajo as all Federal States oppose his illegal term extension

MOGADISHU, Somalia - Outgoing Somalia President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo suffered a major blow on Tuesday in his bid to cling to power, following the decision by Hirshabelle and Galmadug leaders to rescind their initial move of supporting his term extension.

Farmajo, who had already acknowledged the Lower House's decision to extend his mandate by two more years, has been facing pressure from the opposition and members of the international community, who want him to embrace dialogue for the sake of stability.

With most federal states on his side and the leadership of Banadir, Farmajo had managed to stamp authority in his quest to remain in power, but the latest turn of events may force him to either go back to the negotiation table or at worst, resign as federal president.

In a shock move, Hirshabelle President Ali Guldilawe and his Galmadug counterpart Ahmed Kaliye alias Qoor-Qoor, who have been staunch supporters of Farmajo, expressed their desire to push for implementation of the September 17 pre-election deal, which had lost favor of Farmajo.

The two leaders maintained that the deal is the only "clear path" to a peaceful Somalia, adding that "we shall work closely with other leaders to realize the dream of Somalia by embracing dialogue for the sake of stability and prosperity".

And the shock move means Farmajo has only Banadir Governor Omar Filish on his side given that Jubaland's Ahmed Madobe, Southwest's Lafta-Gareen and Puntland leader Said Abdullahi Deni had parted ways with him. He's set to address the media later on Tuesday night.

Already, Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble who is technically the leader of government has welcomed the move, adding that his office has always been determined to hold transparent elections. He asked opposition teams to refrain from acts of violence.

"I would like to welcome press statements made by Galmadug and Hirshabelle leaders. I call upon other federal states of Puntland, Jubaland, Southwest, and Banadir leadership to fully commit to peaceful processes in our bid to hold free and inclusive elections," he said.

Roble made the statement after meeting Farmajo in a closed-door meeting within Villa Somalia. It's not clear if the two leaders agreed to support dialogue or Farmajo would opt to push a different route when he addresses the media.

Move applauded by opposition

The unlikely move has attracted a lot of support from the opposition leaders who have been condemning term extension, and who have previously criticized federal state leaders who had supported Lower House's decision to extend Farmajo's term.

So tense has been the situation that even the capital Mogadishu went into flames on Sunday after clashes emerged within the Somali National Army. Still, several parts of the capital are under forces loyal to opposition leaders.

One of Somalia's former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud commended the decision by HirShabelle and Galmudug as well as Mohamed Roble to go back to the negotiating table to end the electoral stalemate, saying "We have now high hope that the people and the country will be able to survive from this precarious situation".

Similarly, his predecessor Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the man credited for engineering Al-Shabaab defeat in Mogadishu, termed the move "historic" as he called for Farmajo's resignation. He accused the outgoing president of creating "anarchy" in a fragile democracy.

"We call on the outgoing president Farmaajo to walk back on the illegal and disastrous term extension, come to his senses, and resume the dialogue he recklessly walked out from to allow for resolving the existing issues based on the Sept 17 agreement," he noted.

The opposition has been accusing the current administration of failing to live with the promises of holding free and fair elections. Ideally, Somalia was supposed to hold elections from December last year but the efforts were delayed due to internal wrangles.

What international partners said

For almost a month now, members of the international community have been pushing for dialogue in Somalia, with a number of them condemning the Lower House decision to extend Farmajo's term without Senate approval.

In fact, countries like the US had threatened to slap "saboteurs" with sanctions, as the State Department issued a stern warning on Monday. The Department also issued a travel advisory to Somalia, asking her citizens not to visit the Horn of Africa nation.

But immediately the two states leaders who have been supporting Farmajo agreed to support dialogue, the international community seems to be in agreement as the country waits for Farmajo's statement which he will issue after Iftar.

"The EU praises the courage and sense of concertation by PM Roble and FMS proposing a consensus-based way forward towards fast elections and urge others to follow the path to previous commitments. Violence has no place in Somalia and dialogue is the only way forward," Nicolas Berlanga, the EU envoy to Somalia said.

"We commend Qoor-qoor, Ali Guudlaawe, and Mohamed Roble for opposing a term extension and supporting the Sept. 17 election agreement. We urge Farmaajo to accept the clear path to dialogue and peace," the US noted.

"The UK welcomes the statements by Qoor-qoor, Gudlawe Hussein, and Mohamed Roble. Consensus is vital for any electoral process to succeed; the Sept 17 model is the only one to be endorsed by the FGS and all FMSs; all parties should reject violence and urgently resume dialogue," added Kate Foster, UK envoy to Somalia.

It's now more likely that the country's leadership will return to the negotiating table after days of stalemate. Analysts say Farmajo may after all back down and negotiate with other leaders on the clear path to elections in the fragile country which has struggled with instability for several decades.

GAROWE ONLINE