Hope for Somalia as leaders near striking inclusive election deal in Mogadishu

MOGADISHU, Somalia - Somalia's hope for a systematic and credible electoral process has received a huge boost, multiple sources have confided to Garowe Online, following agreements on various contentious issues which almost threatened to tear the country apart in recent months.

For the last two weeks, leaders from the federal member states and those from the federal government have been embroiled in tussles over the model and date for elections, with the representation for Banadir and Somaliland regions also featuring in the controversy.

And to quell the tensions, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, and three regional leaders had reached an agreement in Dhusamareb, following a series of meetings, but the deal lacked legitimacy due to the unprecedented absence of Jubaland President Ahmed Islam Mohamed Madobe and his Puntland counterpart, Said Abdullahi Deni.

But the two would later honour an invitation to Mogadishu by Farmajo, where they have been holed up for the last two weeks. With close supervision of the international community, the five regional leaders, Mogadishu Mayor Omar Filish and Farmajo have been discussing ways of reaching a pre-election deal.

Multiple sources told Garowe Online that the leaders held a lengthy meeting from dusk to midnight on Wednesday in Villa Somalia and until now, they have reached consensus on various contentious issues but it's not clear when the final deal will be signed.

However, sources added, the other controversial points that the leaders are yet to agree to include the role of the National Independent Electoral Commission [NIEC] in the upcoming elections, the model and date notwithstanding. NIEC is mandated to hold the next elections through a political agreement.

The sides agreed the election should not be conducted in a party system and take place in two constituencies [previous deal was 4] in each Somali Federal state and decrease the number of electoral delegates from 301.

At Dhusamareb, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, Mohamed Abdi Waare [HirShabelle], Abdiaziz Lafta-Gareen [Southwest], Ahmed Abdi Kariye [Galmadug] and Mayor Omar Filish agreed on a constituency caucus model and that NIEC should conduct the elections in the next three months.

But Madobe and Deni are said to have expressed reservations, arguing that the local polls should be supervised by member states, adding that NIEC had failed to organize timely elections. The two insisted that NIEC had not shown commitment in holding elections without external interference.

Under the constituency caucus, over 301 delegates per constituency are expected to participate in the upcoming elections, the agreement read. This model is sought for the improved clan-based model or 4.5 system but it gives more stakeholders room to elect MPs other than elders like in previous outings.

Halima Ismael, the NIEC chairperson, had in June ruled out the holding of timely elections, arguing that the commission needed time to conduct Civic education and voter registration across the country. For a universal suffrage poll, she added, the commission would have delivered the assignment by March 2021.

Critics argued that the one-person-one-vote model would have given the current administration a term extension, which would have gone against the spirit of the constitution. The term for the current administration expires in November and the country is set to hold parliamentary and presidential elections.

Already, Farmajo is facing stiff competition from former Presidents Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who might field one candidate under Forum for National Parties, opposition leader Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame and the latest entry of immediate former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire.

GAROWE ONLINE