Inside last marathon to save Somalia from collapsing

MOGADISHU, Somalia - For over nine months now, several meetings have been held within the federal republic of Somalia over impending elections, which could determine the future of the Horn of Africa nation, which has struggled for decades.

Since 1991, there have been genuine efforts to find a lasting solution, which includes the creation of both the Transitional Government and later, the federal government, with the international community credited for these impressive gains.

But the last few months have been tough for the country which is now juggling over a political crisis, which could make or break it. As a mediator, the international community has struggled to unite both sides of the political divide, but with the little meaningful outcome.

The international partners, who largely fund the impoverished nation, are standing between hard rock, even as the opposition and states of Puntland and Jubaland push for the inclusion of the legitimacy of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo in the agenda for the pre-election standoff.

Already, the Federal Government of Somalia [FGS] has issued a statement claiming that the Afisyoni conference talks had collapsed, a move which was disputed by both Puntland and Jubaland, who the FGS had termed as a "stumbling block" to ongoing reconciliation efforts.

In yet another joint statement, the United Nations, European Union, Africa Union, and IGAD raised concerns about the delayed talks, warning that the country is racing against time for "redemption", adding that "there is no luxury of time".

The statement comes a day after the Federal Government of Somalia blamed unnamed external actors for allegedly compromising the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, adding that "elections are national exercises". It's difficult to tell who Mogadishu was referring to.

Implementation of the pre-election deal

While dissociating itself from the external interference of Somalia's internal affairs, the international community reiterated their "respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, political independence and unity of Somalia".

Further, the team called upon Somali leaders "to prioritize the national interest of Somalia and immediately return to dialogue to seek compromise on the outstanding issues, and to ensure that no actions are taken that would undermine the stability of
Somalia, which is critical to the maintenance of international
peace and security".

But according to analysts, the international community has for far too long "repeatedly called for compromise without any meaningful outcome". In most of the statements, the team has often emphasized on same points repeatedly, begging serious questions on lasting solutions to the quagmire.

But it's the emphasis of the implementation of the September 17 pre-election deal which could create further divisions, given the current political climate. At Afisiyooni Center recently, the agenda was one of the topical issues which the leadership failed to agree.

Puntland and Jubaland, who have close ties with the opposition teams, wanted the legitimacy of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo discussed along with the Feb 19 shooting in Mogadishu but the Villa Somalia team insisted on the implementation of the pre-election deal.

And in what seems to be concurrence between the federal government of Somalia, the international community now wants the deal implemented for the sake of stability and democracy in Somalia. The team, just like the FGS, wants Baidoa recommendations implemented.

"Underscore that the 17 September Agreement remains the most viable path towards the holding of elections in the
shortest delay possible, and urge the Federal Government and the Federal Member State leaders to review and validate the 16 February 2021 Baidoa Technical Committee," read the statement.

The term of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo expired on Feb 8, a move which had led to a heated debate on the legitimacy of his government. Farmajo was first elected in 2017 for a four-year term in compliance with the constitution.

Concerns on the political stalemate

Just like in their endless press statements, the international community, which is integral in the social-economic development of the country, warned against parallel elections or partial elections in the country, which they insist could lead to more divisions.

Initially, the FGS had opted to hold elections in Southwest, Hirshabelle, and Galmadug, which are believed to be friendly states. However, Puntland and Jubaland were to be omitted from the process having opposed the initial composition of the Electoral Committee.

The international community noted: "We reaffirm decision not to support any parallel process, partial elections, or new initiatives leading to any extension of prior mandates and express serious concern that the political stalemate is impacting negatively on peace, security, stability, and prosperity in Somalia and beyond."

The team further asked Somali leadership to work together for the sake of state-building, arguing that through such a process, the country can be able to hold credible and transparent elections as provided for in the law.

"We call upon Somali political leaders to continue the progress made in state-building and inclusive politics, especially elections and peaceful transition of power, and appeal to these leaders to deliver today on the vital interests of the Somali people for peaceful, free, fair, and credible elections," it read. "We Urge all Somali leaders to exercise maximum restraint and refrain from any actions that may lead to an escalation of
tensions."

The country was first set to go for elections starting from December last year but a lack of consensus has delayed the process. There are concerns from a number of stakeholders that such a stalemate would pave way for the resurgence of Al-Shabaab militants in areas that have been liberated.

GAROWE ONLINE