Kenyan troops' exit is huge blow to Somalia, analysts say

NAIROBI, Kenya - The planned exit of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia [ATMIS] particularly the Kenya Defense Forces [KDF] contingent will leave a huge void to the Horn of Africa nation, something which may trigger serious consequences, analysts say.

For the last 12 years, the KDF team has been assisting Somalia to stabilize, following the decision to join the African Union Mission in Somalia [AMSOM] later on ATMIS. The troops serve in Sectors II and VI of the ATMIS territory in the Horn of Africa nation.

George Musamali, a security analyst, told Citizen TV that the main mission initiated by the KDF has not yet been achieved, making it difficult for the people of Somalia to survive once the troops exit from the country.

"If you look at the situation in Somalia, there is a disjointed community that has not achieved much in terms of security and we are leaving Somalia in a bad situation just like the Americans left Afghanistan and Vietnam," Musamali said.

He said that staying behind would make Somalia more dependent and urged the Somali government to advocate their own internal security issues. Already, over 2000 soldiers attached to ATMIS have been withdrawn with the mission stopping exit of 3,000 more after a request by Somalia.

''We need to give Somalia a chance to sort out their own issues. Time has come for us now to get out and see how they will deal with their internal issues," he added. "I emphasize the need to lift the arms embargo on Somali for self-defense against al Shabaab."

Edgar Githua, an International Affairs analyst emphasized the nature of Kenya's borders with Somalia and the potential security gaps following the troop's withdrawal.

"We share a huge border with Somalia and I would say we have achieved quite a bit in keeping them at bay," Githua said. "al Shabaab has already released propaganda videos saying that they are aware forces will leave one day and they know the weaknesses that plague the communities," he added.

Recently, Defence Minister Aden Duale said KDF troops serving in ATMIS would leave in four phases. Duale said the departure of the troops will largely depend on the success rate of the peace-keeping mission in Somalia.

"So the decision for Kenyan troops to exit Somalia depends on several factors including the progress of ATMIS mandate and prevailing security and political conditions in Somalia," Duale told the Senate.

GAROWE ONLINE