So, what next after FGS victory over ASWJ militia in Galmudug?

MOGADISHU, Somalia - Saturday, February 29 marked the culmination of a fierce battle between once most close allies in the fight against Al-Shabaab, in a conflict that attracted retribution and praises in equal measure, even as Somalia struggles to erode ghosts of deadly civil war.

At least 20 people were killed when clashes erupted between Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama'a [ASWJ], a moderate Sufi Muslim group, with Somali National Army [SNA], during a battle that lasted for over 12 hours.

That notwithstanding, dozens of people were fatally injured, with hundreds of locals temporarily exiting Dhusamareb, the administrative capital of Galmadug state, paving the way to sophisticated assaults between the two parties.

But by midnight on Friday, at least 19 ASWJ militia had surrendered to a revamped SNA battalion, leading to the immediate retreat of their leaders in quick succession, authorities said.

Given the recent political turmoil in the state, the fierce fighting was least unexpected with the militia blaming FGS for "unconstitutional" take over of federal states including Galmadug.

Early last month, Ahmed Abdi Kariye, a Mogadishu fronted-candidate, easily won the regional presidential polls, which were boycotted by top candidates among them ASWJ front-runner.

ASWJ leaders' cede of power

By Saturday mid-afternoon, SNA troops have reigned over the local militia, who are their former allies in the fight against Al-Shabaab, forcing their leaders to cede power.

Mohamed Shakir, the leader of the group and the spiritual leader Moalim Mohamud Hassan are currently in the custody of the government troops with their fate remaining uncertain.

In a staged press conference, a visibly defeated Shakir said: "We have handed over our weapons and troops to government. All we need now is safety for them and peace."

Previously, he had declared himself as de facto president of Galmadug, after rejecting presidential polls over "political interference" by President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo.

So, what next after ASWJ culmination? 

Although the victory could be a milestone in the deliberate attempts to establish a functional state in Somalia, neutralizing ASWJ could be just the start of a long journey towards achieving the course.

The Sufi group, a religious outfit may have completely lost their influence in Somalia's sophisticated politics, following the defeat.

But according to Abdimalik Abdullahi, a political analyst, the FGS should now borrow "best practices" from the Sufi group and replicate it in their system for the sake of peaceful coexistence.

Their shortcomings notwithstanding, the analyst added the Sufi group's strategy in the fight against Al-Shabaab should be emulated henceforth.

But anti-clericalism, he said, seems to be gaining grounds, noting the "theatrics, poor policies of religious groups. Not romanticizing the conflict through".

Room for Al-Shabaab resurgence

But the seize of Dhusamareb could also play an indispensable role in the resurgence of Al-Shabaab militants in the region, after years of playing second fiddle to the Sufi militia group.

Al-Shabaab militants have been capitalizing on frequent conflicts between FGS and their former allies, expanding their territories mainly for tax collection purposes.

In Galmadug for instance, the group is also in steady control of four districts, and the latest conflict between SNA and ASWJ could further buoy their exploits, warns Rashid Abdi, a security expert.

The Galmadug crisis has often been blamed on Farmajo, with a number of federal states leaders accusing him of "imposing his loyalists" to predetermine December polls outcome.

At Gedo, FGS also deployed troops, who have since seized Balad-Hawo and Dolow districts, much to the resistance of regional Jubaland troops, who termed it "naked aggression" and threatened to retaliate.

Noting the aggression by FGS on federal states, the US fired back on Monday, terming it "unnecessary" and a "room" to pave way for the Al-Shabaab raids.

"The deployment of SNA troops to a politically motivated offensive in the Gedo region of Jubaland is unacceptable and diverts resources from the agreed roadmap for security operations," Rodney Hunter, a policy strategist for the US told UNSC.

To end the animosity, he noted, the federal government of Somalia should embrace dialogue with federal states in solving the current impasse.

“It is imperative that FGS and member states security services focus on combatting Al-Shabaab, rather than engaging in armed conflict with each other to resolve political disputes," he added.

Somalia is expected to hold first universal suffrage polls in December, but the current political situation is deteriorating on a daily basis, a move that could technically sabotage the process.

GAROWE ONLINE