Somalia: FGS recognises Madobe as "interim president", invites FMS leaders to meeting

MOGADISHU, Somalia - Under pressure Somalia President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo has for the first time recognized Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe, but in a move which could further escalate tensions between Kismayo and Mogadishu, who have been embroiled in a protracted conflict.

Since Madobe's re-election in August 2019, the federal government had refused to recognize the polls, which were contested by key candidates. In a statement last year, FGS insisted that the elections were "illegitimate" and insisted on organizing parallel polls.

But instead, Farmajo's administration seemingly changed strategy, a move which saw dozens of Somali National Army [SNA] troops dispatched to the Gedo region, which has been turned into a battlefield between the parties, leading to calls for a ceasefire from Somalia's international partners.

However, in a statement issued on Sunday, FGS seemed to make a U-turn on its position on Jubaland, recognizing Ahmed Madobe for the first time as the leader of the state, which has been at loggerheads with the federal government for months now.

But in the statement, FGS maintained that Madobe is the "interim president of Jubaland administration", adding that his term should expire after two years, starting the day he assumed office for the second term. After that, it added, fresh elections will be held in the region.

Should the proposal stand, it means Madobe's term will expire on October 2021since he took the oath of office last year in October. The FGS had blocked a number of senior leaders from attending the event, forcing some of them to use Kenya as a gateway to Kismayo.

Abshir Mohamed, who is the Chief of Staff in the Office of Jubaland President tweeted: This statement has no legal standing. It is against both the Somali Federal constitution and the Jubaland State constitution. The official response of the Jubaland Government will ensue shortly".

Further, the FGS said President Farmajo has invited members of the national security council among them regional leaders for dialogue over the election process, security, and measures to combat COVID-19. A technical team will propose a date, the statement added.

The FGS has been accused previously of among others, destabilizing federal states by manipulating local elections, dragging the election process that is scheduled in December, and "illegal" deployment of non-AMISOM Ethiopian troops to sections of Jubaland and Southwest.

Sunday's recognition of Madobe has elicited mixed reactions from among Somalis, with Ahmed Abdullahi, a Kismayo resident, calling for an immediate withdrawal of Ethiopian troops and SNA forces from Gedo.

"If FGS has recognized the legitimacy of Madhobe as President of Jubaland then they should consider pulling out the heavy troops in Gedo as a step towards reconciliation process. The Non-AMISOM Ethiopian mercenaries should be expelled out of Somalia," he said.

"President Ahmed Islam was elected on a four-year mandate and his term expires on December 2023. No one can overdo Jubbaland’s constitution. We aren’t in banana republic president Ahmed Islam will stay for four good years InshaAllah. Take it to the nearest bank," added Ahmed Ismael, another resident.

Rashid Abdi, a political analyst on the Horn of Africa affairs, opines that the statement by FGS would evoke protests from Madobe, adding that he's not likely to accept any deal that undermines his stay in power for the next four years in line with the Jubaland constitution.

"If my instincts are correct Madobe likely to protest the 2 yr "recognition" by FGS. He would say he has a full 4 yr mandate from Aug 2019. He would also say this would be his last term and he has no intention to run again," he says. "But he won't kick up a big fuss. He wants to be at the table."

In April, Madobe signed a deal with three of his main competitors in Nairobi, a move which was seen as a blow to Farmajo, who had allegedly been using the conflict to "intimidate" the Jubaland leader to submission.

Both Abdirashid Hiddig, Abdinasir Seeraar and Dahir Ahmed Sheikh, who had been robustly critical of Madobe, signed the deal in a Nairobi hotel, in a move which analysts said could redefine the history of Jubaland and Somalia at large.

The three had rejected the outcome of August 2019 polls in which Sheikh Madobe was declared winner, citing "intimidations, bribery, and rigging" in a protest they had lodged. The agreement was a culmination of behind scenes activities that commenced in October last year.

In a statement released shortly after signing of the agreement, the three fierce politicians "recognized" Madobe's 2019 victory, adding that "we shall work with the administration for the benefit of Jubaland people".

They pledged to rally for "unity within parliament" and "across the state" as one of the fundamental steps towards steering economic growth. This, they added, "would bring about equitable distribution" of resources.

Also topping their agenda was "concerted effort" in the fight Al-Shabaab Al-Shabaab militants, who control large swathes within Jubaland. Al-Shabaab was earmarked as an "existential" enemy of Jubaland.

On his part, Ahmed Madobe pledged to form a "government of unity" which shall have representatives from all regions across the state. The opposition will be an integral part of the administration, the agreement notes.

But of more compelling is Ahmed Madobe's decision to forfeit his future political plans. In the next state's elections, Madobe will "not seek" a third term, effectively ending his reign as a regional leader, albeit on paper.

So publicized was the deal that members of the international community led by the United Nations and the US welcomed the agreement, arguing that it would set the pace for dialogue between Jubaland and the Mogadishu administration.

"We call for full implementation of the pact and inclusion of all Jubaland stakeholders. Unity and reconciliation for Somalia," read the statement by the US, which fully committed Washington to the Jubaland leadership, months after the denial.

GAROWE ONLINE