Somalia Rejects Ethiopia's Participation in AU Mission Amid Egypt's Growing Influence

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (R) greets Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (L) at al-Ittihadiya Palace in Cairo on 21 January 2024 (AFP)

MOGADISHU - Somalia has firmly rejected Ethiopia's attempt to join the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), a decision made clear during a recent United Nations Security Council meeting. The Somali government cited its existing bilateral security agreements as sufficient for managing security personnel, effectively signaling the end of Ethiopia's direct involvement in peacekeeping efforts within Somalia.

Somalia's decision comes amidst ongoing tensions between the two neighboring countries, particularly following Ethiopia's controversial memorandum of understanding with the breakaway region of Somaliland, which Somalia views as a violation of its sovereignty. This development marks a significant shift in regional security dynamics. Ethiopia has been a key contributor to previous African Union missions aimed at stabilizing Somalia against insurgent groups like al-Shabaab.

The rejection at the UN Security Council underscores Somalia's intent to steer its course in security matters, leaning on partnerships that it deems more aligned with its national interests. The AUSSOM, set to replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in January 2025, now moves forward without Ethiopian participation, potentially reshaping the strategic landscape in the Horn of Africa.

Egypt's increasing presence in Somali security affairs has further inflamed regional tensions. With Egypt stepping in to contribute troops to the new AU mission, this move is seen by some as Cairo's attempt to extend its influence in the Horn of Africa, directly challenging Ethiopia's regional ambitions. The experts have highlighted this shift as a strategic maneuver by Egypt, potentially leading to a proxy conflict in Somalia. This has sparked concerns about a new power dynamic where Somalia aligns more closely with Egypt, possibly at the expense of its historical security cooperation with Ethiopia.

Somalia's move has been met with mixed reactions. Some see it as an assertion of national sovereignty, while others express concern over potential security gaps that might emerge without Ethiopia's involvement. Somalia has reportedly secured troop contributions from other nations, including Egypt and Djibouti, to fill this void.

The implications of this decision are far-reaching, potentially affecting not only security operations but also diplomatic relations in a region already fraught with complex interstate relations. The exclusion of Ethiopia from AUSSOM could lead to further diplomatic fallout and strategic realignments in the volatile Horn of Africa. Analysts say troop deployment could shift the balance of power in the Horn of Africa as Addis Ababa seeks to secure a foothold on the Red Sea

GAROWE ONLINE