Somalia's policy group rules out universal suffrage elections, recommends alternative model

MOGADISHU, Somalia - An independent policy group in Somalia has ruled out the possibility of holding first-ever universal suffrage elections, a move that could tilt the ongoing debate about the model, which is set to replace traditional clan-based system commonly known as 4.5.

Early this year, federal President Mohamed Abdullahi assented into law a contentious electoral bill, which has attracted retribution from federal states and sections of the opposition team, who question the legitimacy of the law and its practicability.

The United States and European Union have been major backers of the universal suffrage polls, which they insist would "expand voting rights and restore democracy" in a country that had battled inter-clan conflicts and violent extremism for decades now.

For instance, while the EU acknowledges that both the federal government and member states should strike a consensus on issues undermining national unity, the team has, however, been consistent about the quest to hold one-person-one-vote polls later in December.

"The EU extracts from the exchanges with FMS leaders a genuine willingness of all to engage in a comprehensive dialogue with the Federal Authorities," Nicolas Berlanga, the EU envoy to Somalia said. "The political agreement among leaders will ensure nationwide elections and the refocus of security efforts against Al Shabaab."

But according to Heritage Institute of Policy Studies, an independent think tank on Somalia issues, the winner-takes-all model would be impractical given the "short" duration before the Horn of Africa nation holds polls to replace the current leadership, whose term expires in October.

Other than the short duration, the institute, whose Director Abdirashid Hashi is a former Villa Somalia employee, insists that the financial obligations for the polls cannot be met by both federal government and member states, who are key stakeholders in the Somalia affairs.

"Insecurity remains a pervasive problem across the country, while the financial envelope needed to organize a universal suffrage election would be too big for the FGS and the Federal Member States," reads the latest proposal from the Think Tank.

The National Independent Electoral Commission [NIEC] has been crisscrossing the country in the last bid to collect public views on critical supportive legislations, which are set to guide voting and election of representatives. Most of Somalia stakeholders have vowed to support the process.

However, the institute argues that the controversy surrounding the electoral law could significantly affect the outcome should organizers go ahead with their plans, adding that the move could plunge the country into unfathomable chaos, whose consequences would erode gains made do far in Somalia.

Among others, they insist, the law doesn't outline measures of identifying constituencies in line with the existing democratic virtues, a move which gives the traditional clan-based model precedence. Further, they added, under the law, the country may not obtain the 30 percent quota for women representatives.

The representation of both the Banadir region, where the capital, Mogadishu is situated and secessionist Somaliland, have not been captured into the law. This, the policy institute argues, would significantly be affected by the short duration, thus rendering the processes impractical.

"Moreover, the technical preparation required for a universal suffrage election is also not available. The new law, which infuses modern democratic norms with traditional power-sharing principles, calls for a biometric system to be used," reads policy paper.

"It will be difficult, if not impossible, for the National Independent Electoral Commission [NIEC] to raise the funds
needed, purchase the equipment, and develop the capacity to operate it within the eight months remaining before the election."

Should organizers carry on with the preparations, the institute now says, the much-anticipated elections could be affected, a move which could spark endless political intrigues, which could plunge the country into unnecessary setbacks.

For instance, the institute adds, the current tenure of both the executive and parliament could end up being extended, a move which would work negatively towards the quest to restore normalcy in Somalia, over three decades after the ouster of dictator Siad Barre.

And to avoid such a scenario, the Think Tank now says both federal government and member states along with other stakeholders should urgently hold a dialogue and devise a practical solution to the current impasse, but with strict adherence to democratic tenets.

Any adopted electoral model, the Institute recommends, would have to meet two principles: first, it must lay the foundation for a universal suffrage election, and second, all relevant stakeholders must support it.

To them, the Expanded participation model would be the middle ground for Somalia at this juncture, arguing that it would enable the country to increase the number of electors from the current 14,025 to around 221,000, instead of the entire population participating in the midst of inadequate preparations.

Under this model, it says, each MP should be subjected to 1,000 electors, a scenario which should be replicated in all states. For instance, Southwest with 69 MPs should have 69,000 electors, Puntland 40,000, Jubaland 39000, Galmadug 36,000, and HirShabelle 37,000.

"The EPM envisages that the more people who vote, the stronger the integrity of the election and the less money changing hands. The proposed EPM option will also help to fulfill the quota of women in parliament as well as Somaliland representation," the institute adds.

GAROWE ONLINE