Op-Ed: Somalia’s Future in the Mirror of History: Inclusiveness as the Path to Stability

OP-ED| History is more than the path left by the past; it influences the present and can shape the future. For Somalia, this truth is unmistakable. Having worked at the heart of the Federal Government of Somalia, including in the Office of the Prime Minister and later serving as a Minister at the Federal Member State level, I have had the rare opportunity to observe Somalia’s governance from both the center and the periphery. These experiences have allowed me to compare how a federal system ought to function and what it must truly entail. They also reaffirm my belief that history is not only Somalia’s memory but also its compass, guiding us toward inclusivity, stability, and a resilient future.

The Past as a Foundation and a Warning

Somalia’s independence in 1960 united two former colonial territories, British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland. Each carried distinct administrative legacies, creating early challenges for unity. In the years that followed, Somalia attempted centralised governance, especially under Siad Barre’s regime. While this brought moments of modernisation, it also eroded social (clan) trust and sidelined traditional governance systems.

The eventual collapse of the state in 1991 revealed how fragile a government can become when it ignores local legitimacy and inclusive governance. As Abdi Ismail Samatar remarked in his book Africa’s First Democrats: Somalia’s Aden A. Osman and Abdirazak H. Hussein (2016): “Somalia’s tragedy is not a lack of democracy, but the failure to reconcile its democratic clan ethos with the requirements of a modern state.”

The Present Shaped by Historical Legacies

As I.M. Lewis famously noted in his book A Pastoral Democracy (1961), “kinship is the idiom of all social and political activity” in Somalia. Today, Somalia’s political and social structures still reflect these histories. The civil war left scars of mistrust but also reinforced the resilience of traditional institutions—elders, clan councils, and religious authorities—that stepped in when the state disappeared.

Modern Somalia is rebuilding under a provisional federal constitution adopted in 2012, yet tensions between the Federal Government and Federal Member States echo long-standing struggles between centralisation and local autonomy. The 4.5 formula for clan power-sharing illustrates how deeply the past shapes present efforts at representation. Though imperfect, it remains a political necessity because it reflects Somali society’s unique fabric. As Said Samatar remarked in his book Oral Poetry and Somali Nationalism (1982): “The Somali people are unique in Africa in that their social cohesion is not based on territory but on kinship, poetry, and a shared pastoral ethos.” In practice, this means political inclusion is indispensable for stability—every clan expects, and deserves, a place at the table.

Lessons of History Guiding the Future

Somalia’s path forward depends on integrating the lessons of its past into the architecture of governance:

From centralisation to federalism: The failures of rigid central control suggest that a more balanced system, where federal and state authorities share power clearly and fairly, is necessary.

1. From exclusion to inclusion: Past marginalisation of clans or Federal States contributed to instability. Building an inclusive political order, with all communities represented, is vital for sustainable peace.
2. From collapse to resilience: When the state fell, local governance kept many communities functioning. Recognising and integrating these traditional systems into formal governance can make future institutions stronger.
3. From mistrust to legitimacy: History shows that legitimacy is earned not just through constitutions but also through service delivery, justice, and proper reconciliation.

Conclusion

Somalia’s state-building process is not merely about constructing institutions; it is about weaving history’s lessons into the governance of today. The past warns against exclusion and over-centralisation; the present highlights the importance of hybrid systems that blend modern institutions with traditional authority; and the future depends on building legitimacy through trust, inclusivity, and resilience.

At this pivotal juncture, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud, with only eight months left in his mandate, must reflect on these lessons. Somalia remains fragile, and its people thirst for trust, inclusivity, and a government that serves their collective interests. Reversing the unilateral constitutional amendments would be a powerful act of reconciliation, showing that unity outweighs division. What Somalia needs is not one person or group presuming to dictate the national interest, but a participatory process that brings all stakeholders—including Puntland, Jubaland, and opposition groups—to the table.

From my own journey across both federal and state institutions, I have learned that inclusiveness is not a luxury; it is the foundation of trust and the cornerstone of legitimacy. A system in which citizens believe the government works for them will always endure, while one imposed through exclusion will only deepen fragility.

Somalis are, in the words of I.M. Lewis in his book Understanding Somalia and Somaliland (2008): “remarkable for their passion for freedom and their unwillingness to accept authority not based on consent.” This national character is both a challenge and an opportunity. By embracing dialogue, principled compromise, and shared ownership of Somalia’s political future, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud has the opportunity to transform fragility into resilience and guide the nation toward an electoral model that reflects both political realities and the will of its people.

Somalia’s future will not be secured by exclusion or unilateralism, but by inclusiveness, trust, and a shared commitment to build a federal governance that serves all its people.

Author

Hon. Mohamed A. Salah “Donyale”

Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation

Puntland State of Somalia

The author has more than a decade of experience working within Somalia’s federal government institutions, including senior roles in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ministry of Internal Security, and the Defence Institute, as well as ministerial service at the Federal Member State level. This dual perspective provides firsthand insight into Somalia’s evolving federal system, its challenges, and the urgent need for inclusiveness.