Abiy Ahmed Faces Regional Isolation as Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia Form 'Axis Against Ethiopia'

NAIROBI, Kenya - At the tail end of the tripartite summit involving the hosts Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia, an alliance dubbed 'axis against Ethiopia' was born, signaling a major regional fallout that would subsequently, lead to unprecedented isolation of Ethiopia.

For the last four years, Ethiopia has battled both internal and external challenges, placing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in a serious quagmire. At home, Ahmed is battling with tribal and regional uprisings, threatening his leadership, with the Tigray war being a notable downfall.

In Abroad, Dr. Ahmed, the Nobel Peace Prize winner of 2019, is accused of clandestine plans to annex parts of Somalia, having signed a sea access deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland.

The deal, once implemented, would see Ethiopia getting 20 kilometers of access to the Red Sea for the construction of a military base and port in exchange for recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state. The move is opposed by Somalia and allied countries.

Ahmed is also facing rebellion from Egypt over the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam. Cairo argues that the momentous project reduces the flow of water downstream, impacting the people of Sudan and Egypt.

A communique released by Isaias Afwerki (Eritrea), Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (Somalia) and Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (Egypt, agreed to enhance Somalia’s capacity 'to protect its land and sea borders'.

The joint statement indicated that the leaders have agreed to enhance cooperation to strengthen Somali state institutions to address “various internal and external challenges.” This includes training and equipping the Somali National Army (SNA).

They reportedly emphasized the importance of “unequivocal respect for the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of the countries in the region.” Egypt and Eritrea have been training the Somali troops.

Complicating the situation, Egypt recently sent its second military aid shipment to Somalia, including heavy artillery and armored vehicles. This delivery, part of a defense pact signed between Egypt and Somalia in August 2024, has raised concerns in Ethiopia and Somaliland.

The summit also addressed several issues, including “the crisis in Sudan and its regional repercussions” and “security and cooperation issues between the Littoral States of the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait,” according to the statement.

The leaders “welcomed the efforts made by the State of Eritrea and the Arab Republic of Egypt in supporting stability in the brotherly State of Somalia,” the statement noted, adding that Egypt offered to “contribute forces within the framework of peacekeeping efforts in Somalia.”

The meeting concluded with an agreement to establish a “Joint Tripartite Committee of the Foreign Ministers of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia for strategic cooperation in all fields.” This effectively isolates Ethiopia from regional agreements.

Previously, Ethiopia has been calling shots in the region, playing an integral role in matters of peace and stability. In Somalia, Ethiopia has about 5,000 soldiers helping in the fight against Al-Shabaab and has been critical in state building.

Somalia has ruled out the participation of Ethiopia in the upcoming African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) which replaces the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) effective January 2025.

GAROWE ONLINE