Somalia: AUSSOM Faces Neutrality Test as Baidoa Political Crisis Turns Military

GAROWE, Somalia — The political crisis in Somalia’s South West State is putting growing pressure on the African Union and other foreign partners to avoid being drawn into a domestic power struggle as the dispute over control of Baidoa becomes increasingly militarised.

A Federal Government-backed administration is now in place in Baidoa following the removal of former South West President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, whose supporters reject the new political arrangement.

The dispute has since turned violent. Forces loyal to Laftagareen fought federal and regional troops in and around Baidoa on August 17, raising fears that the political confrontation could push South West State towards a wider armed conflict.

An African Union memorandum dated August 21, seen by Garowe Online, shows that the Federal Government asked the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia, AUSSOM, to intervene in the deteriorating security situation.

The memorandum, addressed to the head of AUSSOM, says the African Union Commission is concerned about what it describes as a growing alliance between local armed militias and Al-Shabaab, including coordinated attacks against Somali military positions in and around Baidoa.

It authorises AUSSOM to join Federal Government forces in military operations against Al-Shabaab and what the document describes as its affiliated militias or armed groups in South West State.

But the same directive places a clear restriction on the mission.

AUSSOM was instructed to maintain political neutrality and impartiality and to “steer clear of any political fighting.”

That instruction has become particularly important because the Federal Government and its allies have accused forces opposed to the new Baidoa administration of cooperating with Al-Shabaab.

Laftagareen has rejected the accusation.

The former South West president, who was forced from power, said in an interview with the BBC that claims linking his forces to Al-Shabaab were untrue.

The dispute over those allegations could now determine how far AUSSOM becomes involved in the Baidoa conflict.

The African Union document authorises military action against Al-Shabaab and affiliated armed groups, but it does not authorise AUSSOM to fight political opponents of the Federal Government. Its explicit instruction to remain outside political fighting underlines that distinction.

Türkiye also facing pressure

The issue is not limited to the African Union.

Sources familiar with the matter told Garowe Online that Somalia’s Federal Government, whose institutions are operating beyond their previous terms, has been pressing Türkiye to help protect the administration now controlling Baidoa.

According to the sources, Villa Somalia has told Turkish officials that forces supporting Laftagareen have established links with Al-Shabaab.

Garowe Online has not independently verified that claim, while Laftagareen has publicly denied cooperating with the militant group.

There has also been no public confirmation from Türkiye that it intends to become involved in the political confrontation in South West State.

Ankara has become one of Somalia’s most important security partners, training Somali forces and providing extensive military assistance to the Federal Government.

Any Turkish involvement in Baidoa would therefore raise questions about whether that security partnership is being used solely against Al-Shabaab or could extend to an internal political dispute.

A difficult line for foreign partners

The situation presents a difficult choice for Somalia’s international partners.

Al-Shabaab remains an active military threat around Baidoa and elsewhere in the country. But the South West crisis also involves a separate political struggle over the leadership and legitimacy of the regional administration.

The danger is that the two could become blurred.

If forces belonging to one side of a Somali political dispute are treated as Al-Shabaab affiliates, foreign troops deployed for counterterrorism operations could find themselves fighting Somali political actors.

The African Union appears aware of that risk.

Its August 21 memorandum supports military action against Al-Shabaab but specifically orders AUSSOM to remain neutral in political fighting.

The same issue now confronts Türkiye and other countries providing military assistance to Somalia.

For foreign partners, the question is no longer simply whether they will continue supporting Somalia against Al-Shabaab. It is whether they can do so without becoming participants in the country’s internal political conflicts.

The crisis in Baidoa may provide the first major test of where that line is drawn.

GAROWE ONLINE