Jubaland conflict: What we know so far

KISMAYO, Somalia - Strong disagreements have emerged between authorities in Mogadishu and Kismayo after Ahmed Islam Mohamed Madobe defied orders to hold direct elections, effectively winning his third term as regional leader, leading to the current standoff.

In his address, Madobe maintained that the federal government 'has no role in determining our internal affairs' while insisting that 'any attempts to destabilize the region shall be resisted'. However, he said that his government would be eager to dialogue.

But for Mogadishu, the elections were 'unconstitutional and illegal', calling for actions from the Attorney General who should prefer charges against Madobe — initiate a process that guarantees his removal from office for failing to embrace changes.

The Jubaland leader said the universal suffrage model of elections would trigger unconstitutional term extensions for state and national leaders, a claim disputed by the federal government of Somalia under Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Consequently, both sides have invested in strategies to control Jubaland leading to military buildups in El-Wak and Raskamboni. At least 100 soldiers from the federal government have landed in the state, prompting the strategic positioning of Jubaland forces.

Multiple sources confirmed the arrival of Turkish-trained GorGor troops and their Haram'ad police contingent around Raskamboni with additional flights carrying personnel and weaponry having arrived on Monday.

But Hassan Iraqi, the 18th Division commander says the troops are mobilizing to take over from the exiting Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) troops serving in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) whose mandate expires in December 2024.

The claims by the commander could not be verified even as he denied the planned onslaught in Kismayo. Some other sources say Hassan Sheikh will deploy additional troops Gedo region besides increasing the number of military vehicles in the region, as well as in Raskamboni.

Interestingly, Hamsa Abdi Barre, Somalia’s Prime Minister who hails from Jubaland, is said to be engaging regional troops in Afmadow, calling for their switch of allegiance to the detriment of Ahmed Madobe, his former boss.

The strategic move targets regions in Jubaland where the influence of Madobe is not as deep as in Kismayo. The federal government views Madobe as an 'obstacle' to change and believes his defeat would engineer massive changes in Somalia’s electoral laws.

However, Madobe, who accuses Hassan Sheikh of 'double speak', has managed to control most entry points to the state, thus making maneuvers of the federal troops extremely difficult and challenging. He says his victory on Monday was legitimate.

With the threat of wrestling most parts of Jubaland from him increasing, Madobe has dispatched troops from Bulo Haji and nearby towns to counter the federal government’s military maneuvers in Raskamboni, heightening the risk of a military showdown that could not only undermine Madobe’s rule but also jeopardize the state’s security.

This, analysts argue, could give Al-Shabaab a lifetime after losing several frontlines in the recent military operations conducted by the Somali National Army (SNA) with the help of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia and the US Africa Command.

The situation remains fluid even as both sides battle for control — but Madobe alleges deep betrayal by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who before winning in 2022, was a critic of direct elections, but now terms indirect elections as 'illegal'.

Keep following Garowe Online for recent updates on the situation in Jubaland

GAROWE ONLINE